Ok, dammit: oil is on the move.
OPEC was out with its latest monthly report this morning and frankly, I’m sick to death of covering that damn thing, because it’s like reading a drug cartel prospectus only without the drugs. In other words: it’s boring.
So let’s just stick with the bullet points. Here they are:
- OPEC RAISES PROJECTIONS FOR GLOBAL OIL DEMAND IN 2017, 2018
- OIL DEMAND IN DEVELOPED ECONOMIES BEAT EXPECTATIONS IN 2Q: OPEC
- OPEC LOWERS ESTIMATES FOR RIVAL SUPPLY IN 2017, 2018: REPORT
- OPEC RAISES ESTIMATES OF DEMAND FOR ITS CRUDE IN 2017, 2018
All of that’s bullish. Or at least ostensibly bullish. But this isn’t:
- Rebound in Libyan production pushed group’s output to 32.87m b/d, the highest this year; country’s output rose by 154.3k b/d to ~1m b/d
But we already kinda knew that.
Well overnight, Brent moved above $53/bbl, as the front of the curve strengthens following yesterday’s reported U.S. inventory draw. “On ICE you have the whole Brent structure strengthening which doesn’t bode too badly for the next days or weeks,” Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates noted, adding that “on the WTI side, yesterday’s stock data was positive.”
So in other words: fuck that gasoline build.
Which brings us to… well… it bring us to now, and now is a time when WTI has just broken above $50 on ~10k lots of front month contracts moving in the minute prices pushed higher:
Brent also built on its gains, hitting a day-high at $53.59 – the highest since May 25.
Notably, this coincided with a dip in the dollar, probably occasioned by the PPI miss (if I was guessing) and as we all know, these moves in oil are prone to reversing themselves pretty much immediately, so take it for what it’s worth which probably isn’t much.