Dollar Gloom: Key Technical Level Breached, Yields Dive

Well, the dollar just can’t catch a break.

Already in the doldrums, the greenback started taking on more water on Monday evening when two more Republican defections killed the GOP healthcare bill.

The malaise continued into the US session and now, DXY has breached a technical level that Bloomberg notes has “helped guard the 2016 lows at 91.92.”

Dollar

We’re not much on this kind of “analysis,” but if you are, here are the bullet points:

  • Index breaking the 2017 channel support and 76.4% Fibonacci of 2016-2017 rally on Tuesday
  • Support at 94.08, the Aug. 2016 low and then 93.02, the June 2016 low
  • Trend structure strongly bearish with 2016 low seen as the next likely target objective for late 3Q (~3% away); daily and weekly ichimoku model is bearish in its entirety
  • Above 96.52 required to alleviate the immediate downside pressure and seen as risk zone for new ‘breakdown’ sellers

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the dollar is of course tracking Treasury yields, which are falling on the back of deteriorating sentiment around the viability of Trump’s agenda…

Dollar2

10Y yields are at their lowest level since late last month following a $1.9m/DV01 TY block trade, quickly followed by $395k/DV01 trade.

Treasurys

TY

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