The buck stops here…
Month: June 2017
It’s The Politics Stupid! BIS Flags A “Scary” Change In The Market’s Mindset
“Underlying a number of these changes was a shift of market participants’ attention away from monetary policy and towards political events.”
When Doves Cry: Kocherlakota Is Worried That The Fed Has Abandoned You
Allison Nathan: Narayana, if inflation fails to accelerate from here, is there anything that would convince you that the Fed should get more hawkish?
Narayana Kocherlakota: No.
“That’s Not A Bubble. THIS Is A Bubble”
“Woe betide any fund manager who switched into Value stocks at the first sign of volatility back then.”
Sally Yates: Hey Jeff Sessions, “There’s A Difference Between A Cartel Boss And A Street Dealer”
“First, it’s fiscally irresponsible and undermines public safety. Since 1980, the U.S. prison population has exploded from 500,000 to more than 2.2 million, resulting in the highest incarceration rate in the world and costing more than $80 billion a year”…
Make Child Labor Great Again! Trump Promises To “Put Minors Back To Work”
“Makes me nostalgic for that great asbestos insulation”…
“Mercury Rising”: Here Are The 4 Mideast “Flashpoints” Markets Should Fear
“The implications are far reaching, with scarcely a country in the region not at risk of being drawn in.”
Barclays Sarcastically Asks: “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…
Trump’s Border Wall Idea “Sounds Like It Came From Another Country”
“Although its effectiveness has not been measured, the truth is that for all practical purposes, the southern border already has a barrier in place.”
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
In Saudi-Qatar Spat, “Terrorist” Is A Political Term
“There is no question that these individuals are connected to Qatar, but the question of whether they are “terrorists†or not is essentially political.”
“Do You Ever Have Déjà Vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”: Oil And The “Slippery Slope”
“I don’t think so, but I can check with the kitchen”…
“Missing Was The Exclamation Mark”: Is It Time To Take Trump’s Tweets More Seriously?
“‘I did not make, and do not have, any such recordings.’ Missing is the standard exclamation mark.”
“We Are Close To A Point When The Narrative Changes”: Deutsche Warns On High Yield, Oil
“Historical evidence suggests that D/EV ratios at 60% or higher lead to a material jump in expected credit losses.”
ETFs To The Rescue!
“ETFs own almost 6% of the equity market, the highest ETF share on record. In contrast, mutual fund ownership fell to its lowest level since 2004 (24%).”
Explaining Low Vol In Dollar Terms (Literally)
“We believe that this risk-on phase (that started in January 2016) is coming to an end.”
Here’s A List Of Every Lie Trump Told In June
A big, beautiful list…
SocGen: “Watch Out For Oil Spills” When There’s “Nothing Else To Do”
“But then the market, with nothing else to do, started to focus on oil prices”…
This Is The “Most Vulnerable” Index In Credit To Macro Risk
“Quite in contrast to the past couple of years, this index now appears to be the most vulnerable to macro risks compared to other benchmarks in credit.”
Guest Post: Somewhere Cheap To Hide
“I don’t think there is any rush to buy. Yet for me, this is a perfect uncorrelated value story. Somewhere cheap to hide while the rest of the crazy extended market swings around.”
Analyst: Wal-Mart Could Outbid Amazon For Whole Foods Because “Godzilla Vs. King Kong” Isn’t Just A Movie
“King Kong vs. Godzilla is not only a theme but a reality – never underestimate the competitive dynamics in this industry.”
One Trader Trusts Numbers Even Less Than He Trusts You – And That’s Saying Something
“The dictionary speaks of facts and specifics. But in reality it includes, biases, positions and a whole lot of other subjective factors. You and I can, quite properly, look at the same data and react differently.”
Kolanovic Warns Of “Market Turmoil,” “Tail Risks” As Gandalf Ruins Your Friday
“Medium term, this is likely to lead to market turmoil, and a rise in volatility and tail risks.”
“They Don’t Want To See A Low Close”: China Is Still Manipulating Their Stock Market
““There’s still belief that authorities are trying to maintain the stock market at a certain level and don’t want to see a very low close.”
Russell Shuffle Day, Brexit Anniversary, & Crude Carnage
It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer
Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need to upgrade.
The Big 3’s Exit Plan In 1 “Easy” Flowchart
“It’s so simple”…
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