Heisenberg(s) here with another “brick and martyr”/ retail apocalypse/ death of the malls post.
As usual, we’d remind you that this is one of those trends you should follow even if you have no intention of actually trading it, because it has implications for the broader economy.
When last we checked in on the story, we highlighted a new Goldman note that asked the following question: “Is HY Retail The Next Shoe To Drop?”
Here are some other fun posts you can peruse if you’re looking for ways to spend all that time you’re saving by buying shit on Amazon instead of trekking out to physical stores:
- The Retail “Big Short” Goes Mainstream As WSJ Touts The CMBX 6 Trade
- Here’s How To Play The Retail “Big Short” (Hint: It’s Not CMBX)
- Here’s Another Trade Idea For The Coming Retail Apocalypse
- “Amazingly,” This Trade Is Probably Going To Work However You Put It On
- Is This The Point Of No Return For Retail? One Bank Answers
One of the big problems with almost all of those posts is that they contain a lot of words.
And if there’s anything people fucking hate on weekends it’s words.
Given that, we thought you might like some charts instead. The only annoying words we’ve included are those necessary to explain the pretty pictures. You’re welcome world.
Via Citi’s “10 Charts That Tell It All” For Retail
Change in dollars spent by category, 2016 vs 2011
Changes in Ecom penetration (and AMZN specifically)
US retail traffic trends
Ecom penetration versus changes in EBIT margin
Tracker of consecutive annual net income declines
Housing market scorecard
Sales dollars gained by off-pricers versus dollars lost by dept stores
An increased amount of sales “up for grabs” from dept store closures
U.S. athletic footwear sales growth and ASPs
Total stock returns over the past 5 years