GDP Misses – But Hey, It Could Have Been Worse

Well, in light of Thursday’s, how shall we say, “less-than-encouraging” data, Goldman was out reducing their Q1 GDP tracking estimate by three tenths to +1.1% (qoq ar) ahead of Friday’s advance GDP report. And, in a rather dour assessment, the Atlanta Fed cut their final GDPNow model forecast for real growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q1 to 0.2% (down from 0.5% a little over a week ago). Ultimately, consensus coming into Friday was 1% with a high of 2.2% and a low of 0% according to Bloomberg.

Moments ago we got the official print and it’s, well, a miss. Although perhaps not as disappointing as some expected. Here are the numbers:

  • U.S. First Quarter Advance GDP Grew 0.7%; Est. 1%
  • GDP rose 2.1% in prior quarter, BEA said
  • 1Q GDP forecast range 0% to 2.2% from 82 economists
  • Personal consumption rose 0.3% in 1Q after rising 3.5% prior quarter
  • GDP price index rose 2.3% in 1Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter
  • Core PCE q/q rose 2.0% in 1Q after rising 1.3% prior quarter
  • Final sales to private domestic purchasers q/q rose 2.2% in 1Q after rising 3.4% prior quarter
  • Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property rose 9.4% in 1Q after rising 0.9% prior quarter
  • U.S. First Quarter Employment Cost Index Rose 0.8%; Est 0.6%

“The U.S. economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years as weak auto sales and lower home-heating bills dragged down consumer spending, offsetting a pickup in investment led by housing and oil drilling,” Bloomberg writes, adding that “consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose 0.3%, the worst performance since 2009.”

Here’s the knee-jerk:

  • USD/JPY FRESH HIGH 111.66 AS YIELDS RISE AFTER GDP DATA

GDP

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