We’re going to pound the table, beat dead horses, shout from the rooftops, the whole
Category: high yield
One Chart & One Question For High Yield Longs
If you’re still hanging onto high yield after the third largest weekly exodus in history
So You Want To Be An Oil Contrarian?
“Should oil rally $10, less than our commodity analyst forecast, from the current $52 to $62 by the end of 2Q (up 19%), the HY spread could decrease 48bp.”
This Is How Much Your “Junk” Depends On Central Bank Dovishness
On Wednesday we showed you the following chart from BofAML: So that right there should
A Good News Type Of Day
Well damned if this wasn’t a good news type of day. We’d wager the only people
Behold: The Central Bank Junk Bond Put In All Its Glory
Over the past two months, we’ve warned repeatedly that global asset prices may be set
“Junk-pocalypse Now”
Suddenly, everyone is talking about the HY canary in the stretched market coal mine. As
“Canaries”
“A sign that the market is accepting that rates are indeed going higher? That issuance is finally taking more to digest? Or just another correction that looks mild if you’ve ridden this thing for the last year? My hint: it may not matter as funds were marked-to-market at year-end.”
We Told You So: Junk’s Correlation With Oil, Copper Suddenly Skyrockets
File this one in the increasingly full “you heard it here first” folder.
These Charts Do NOT Scream “Ready For Super Aggressive Fed”
We don’t want to sound like a broken record, but …
“Spillover”
If you were following along last week (well, I guess technically it’s still “this” week,
Percentage Of Junk Investors Raising Cash Explodes, Number Reporting Below Average Cash Position Halves
Whatever you do, don’t you try and say we didn’t warn you. Time after time,
Junk Warning: “You Are Here”
They do ring bells at the top…
This Is What It Looks Like When Everyone Starts Selling Their “Junk”
Over the course of the last two days, I’ve suggested that perhaps the junk bond bubble
More Trouble
I don’t know if maybe you noticed, but this is playing out exactly like I
So Yeeahhh… About That Reflation Thing
“While investors may return to the reflation narrative again, it’ll take more than a few political speeches to get them there.”
Don’t Look Now, But The Junk Bond Bubble May Be Bursting
I’ve been shouting from the rooftops, pounding the table, beating dead horses, etc. etc. for
Chart Check: See No Evil…
What political uncertainty?
WTF Chart Check: Don’t Forget About France
Lest it should slip your mind that for every “success” Trump has, the odds of a French electoral “accident” increase, consider once again the disconnect between asset prices and policy uncertainty in Paris as illustrated here by HY spreads versus the EPU…
Chart Check: “There Goes Your Cushion”
Regular readers will recall that I have continually decried the fact that the central bank-inspired
Stocks May Be Asleep, But Credit Is Passed The F*ck Out
Morgan Stanley has been warning about richness in credit for months and I’ve often cited their analysis in my own posts. Indeed I’ve said repeatedly that when it comes to tranquil markets and rampant complacency, there’s no asset class that looks more dangerous than credit.
An ETF Disaster Waiting To Happen
I’m a broken record on a whole lot of things and corporate bond market liquidity
“Listen! Do You Smell Something?” Canaries In The Coal Mine
“So on a morning of relative calm with S&P 500 futures trading at all-time highs, I thought I’d take the opportunity to focus on a few potential canaries in the coal mine of risk-on to watch.”
Asleep At The Wheel: “Clients Are Asking If Our Models Are Updating Properly”
Assuming this “asleep at the wheel” dynamic can’t persist for much longer, spreads have to either compress further or blow out. Which do you think is more likely?
Chart Check (It’s A Setup)
Danger Will Robinson…
Performance Anxiety
“If there is such a thing as a ‘Holy Grail’ in the credit market anno 2017 then surely the no-cost decompression trade is it – the trade that performs, if spreads widen, but doesn’t cost a bundle of carry if they don’t.”
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