You want a reason to be dovish, you’ve got one now.
Category: economy
RV Stocks Soar On Expected Harvey-Related Demand
Reminder: We’ve been long RVs since day one…
Is Ray Dalio Wrong? One Indicator Says Maybe
“That’s it. Nothing more.”
The Arborist
“Left to its own devices your portfolio will grow wildly — not to structural ruin, but to structural inefficiency.”
Horsepower: Lessons From ‘An Old Guy With A Tractor’
“I can accomplish amazing things with that untiring, never flagging, hundred-fold leverage. I can also kill myself.”
Presenting: Jobs And ‘Hope’ Versus The World
“Of course all other data – including housing and real estate, the industrial sector, the personal/household sector and retail & wholesale – generally speaking continue to disappoint.”
U.S. GDP, ECI Both Miss; Yields, Dollar Plunge
U.S. ECONOMY EXPANDED AT 2.6% PACE IN 2Q; EST. 2.7%
U.S. Second Quarter Employment Cost Index Rose 0.5%; Est 0.6%
‘It’s A Sitting Duck’: Swiss Franc Plunge Continues, Bund Yields Soar, On Hot German Data
“All this makes the CHF a bit of a sitting duck”…
Gradually And Then Suddenly
“But, hey, we’re hitting our numbers just fine as it stands and, if you hadn’t noticed, our stock price hit a new high yesterday. Why mess up a good thing?”
‘Billions And Billions And Billions’: ECB, BoJ, And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
If you didn’t get your fill of hand-wringing over DM central banks last week, then you’re in luck…
Progressivity Ultimately Comes At Its Own Expense
“In this way, the middle class begins to capture an increasing proportion of the benefits of social spending, leaving less for welfare services targeted exclusively at the poorest.”
O, Canada! China?! Yellen Yellin’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, well this should be an interesting week. We’ll get the BoC, which will make
BofAML: ‘Simply Said’, Shit Just Isn’t That Volatile
You know, at a certain point this just becomes laughable and almost not worth mentioning.
Jobs Report Beats, But Average Hourly Earnings Misses
U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 222k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Goldman Asks The Big Question: What Does The Opioid Epidemic Mean For The Economy?
“By now most people have seen at least one astonishing headline about the opioid epidemic: Opioid abuse kills about 100 Americans per day. There are as many opioid prescriptions written annually in the US as there are adults. With just 5% of the world’s population, the US consumes 80% of its opioids.”
Nomura: 3 Ways The ‘Goldilocks’ Market Could End (Now Cue The 3 Bears)
“Markets have been pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: benign growth, low inflation and slow central banks and therefore high valuations and low implied volatility.”
“A Major, Serious” Situation In Japan, PMIs Galore, And A Deadline For Qatar
Ok, so Shinzo Abe’s LDP suffered a stunning loss in Tokyo assembly elections over the weekend,
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”
It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start
Will This Be The Longest Expansion In US History? Spoiler Alert: Pray For Tax Cuts
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
“Do You Ever Have Déjà Vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”: Oil And The “Slippery Slope”
“I don’t think so, but I can check with the kitchen”…
Russell Shuffle Day, Brexit Anniversary, & Crude Carnage
It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer
“Hakuna Matata”?
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
Guest Post: Heroin & Non-Consensual Capitalism
“Three decades of heroin price history parallel the transformation of the neoliberal state and society. It tells an interesting story of business, politics, economics, globalization, and governmentality.”
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