“Within this universe, economic policies are designed primarily for political marketability; economic science exists largely to provide impressive diagrams and equations to sell them with. Phrases designed in think tanks and focus groups (e.g. free market, wealth creators, personal responsibility, shared sacrifice) are repeated like incantations until it all seems like such unthinking common sense that no one even asks what the resulting picture has to do with social reality.”
Category: economy
(Still) Hakuna Matata?
Perhaps the most amusing thing about it all is that it’s become so ubiquitous and reliable that it can now be summarized succinctly in the form of a bullet point (and apparently “bulletproof”) investment thesis…
‘Are Hurricanes Good Now?’
Listen, there’s considerable debate out there about what the impact from two catastrophic hurricanes is
Krugman: How Destroying DACA Puts The U.S. Economy On The Japan Track
“The truth is that letting the Dreamers work legally helps the U.S. economy; pushing them out or into the shadows is bad for everyone except racists. To understand why, you need to realize that America, like other advanced economies, is facing a double-barreled demographic challenge thanks to declining fertility.”
As Mnuchin Warns On Debt Ceiling, Let’s Compare Harvey To Katrina – Because That’s Fun
If you’re not in Texas or if you’re just a cold-hearted, trader cynic who only worries about your P&L, then that’s probably all you care about here, because the sooner the debt ceiling gets raised, the sooner you can cross “technical U.S. default” off your “tail risk” list.
Of course as is usually the case with catastrophic natural disasters, it’s not all good news.Â
Harvey, The Debt Ceiling, And Why It Might Be Time To Fade The Pessimism
If you were following along last week, you know that more than a few commentators
Manic Markets Reverse Jobs Knee-Jerk, But ‘There’s No Chance Of December Hike’
You want a reason to be dovish, you’ve got one now.
RV Stocks Soar On Expected Harvey-Related Demand
Reminder: We’ve been long RVs since day one…
Is Ray Dalio Wrong? One Indicator Says Maybe
“That’s it. Nothing more.”
The Arborist
“Left to its own devices your portfolio will grow wildly — not to structural ruin, but to structural inefficiency.”
Horsepower: Lessons From ‘An Old Guy With A Tractor’
“I can accomplish amazing things with that untiring, never flagging, hundred-fold leverage. I can also kill myself.”
Presenting: Jobs And ‘Hope’ Versus The World
“Of course all other data – including housing and real estate, the industrial sector, the personal/household sector and retail & wholesale – generally speaking continue to disappoint.”
U.S. GDP, ECI Both Miss; Yields, Dollar Plunge
U.S. ECONOMY EXPANDED AT 2.6% PACE IN 2Q; EST. 2.7%
U.S. Second Quarter Employment Cost Index Rose 0.5%; Est 0.6%
‘It’s A Sitting Duck’: Swiss Franc Plunge Continues, Bund Yields Soar, On Hot German Data
“All this makes the CHF a bit of a sitting duck”…
Gradually And Then Suddenly
“But, hey, we’re hitting our numbers just fine as it stands and, if you hadn’t noticed, our stock price hit a new high yesterday. Why mess up a good thing?”
‘Billions And Billions And Billions’: ECB, BoJ, And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
If you didn’t get your fill of hand-wringing over DM central banks last week, then you’re in luck…
Progressivity Ultimately Comes At Its Own Expense
“In this way, the middle class begins to capture an increasing proportion of the benefits of social spending, leaving less for welfare services targeted exclusively at the poorest.”
O, Canada! China?! Yellen Yellin’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, well this should be an interesting week. We’ll get the BoC, which will make
BofAML: ‘Simply Said’, Shit Just Isn’t That Volatile
You know, at a certain point this just becomes laughable and almost not worth mentioning.
Jobs Report Beats, But Average Hourly Earnings Misses
U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 222k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Goldman Asks The Big Question: What Does The Opioid Epidemic Mean For The Economy?
“By now most people have seen at least one astonishing headline about the opioid epidemic: Opioid abuse kills about 100 Americans per day. There are as many opioid prescriptions written annually in the US as there are adults. With just 5% of the world’s population, the US consumes 80% of its opioids.”
Nomura: 3 Ways The ‘Goldilocks’ Market Could End (Now Cue The 3 Bears)
“Markets have been pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: benign growth, low inflation and slow central banks and therefore high valuations and low implied volatility.”
“A Major, Serious” Situation In Japan, PMIs Galore, And A Deadline For Qatar
Ok, so Shinzo Abe’s LDP suffered a stunning loss in Tokyo assembly elections over the weekend,
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”
It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start
Will This Be The Longest Expansion In US History? Spoiler Alert: Pray For Tax Cuts
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
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