If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
Category: economy
And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”
It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start
Will This Be The Longest Expansion In US History? Spoiler Alert: Pray For Tax Cuts
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
“Do You Ever Have Déjà Vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”: Oil And The “Slippery Slope”
“I don’t think so, but I can check with the kitchen”…
Russell Shuffle Day, Brexit Anniversary, & Crude Carnage
It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer
“Hakuna Matata”?
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
Guest Post: Heroin & Non-Consensual Capitalism
“Three decades of heroin price history parallel the transformation of the neoliberal state and society. It tells an interesting story of business, politics, economics, globalization, and governmentality.”
Full Week Ahead Preview: In Search Of “Missingflation”
Markets will get a well-deserved break from scheduled event risks in the days ahead after
One Strategist Thinks You Should Ignore The “Prophets Of Doom”
“The Fed’s decision to tighten rates in the face of sluggish growth and limp inflation has encouraged a narrative that they are embarking on a policy error, with the flattening of the yield curve cited as a primary piece of evidence. Upon closer inspection, however, the prognostications of peril appear wide of the mark.”
This Key Indicator Says A Make-Or-Break Moment Is Upon Us
Yeah so the Citi Economic Surprise Index has become the 800-pound gorilla in the room and it’s not hard to see why – especially when you look at it next to what rates seem to be saying about the economic outlook…
The Day After: Yellen’s Big Mistake
So here we are, the day after a Fed hike that was supposed to (and
Before The Fed: China?! “An Illegal Siege” On Qatar! Crude Carnage. Oh, My.
Yeah, so this afternoon the Fed will almost surely hike and folks will be looking
One Bank Sums Things Up: “Equities Are The Last One Standing”
This is something I hope you already know.
Everything You Need To Know For The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which means normally, you’d be thinking about Monday, but this weekend you
Guest Post: Guess What? Not All Government Borrowing Is Bad
“Pundits constantly shout about the dangers of governments borrowing too much. They make all sorts of scary charts, and, uniformly, put all borrowing in the same pile. Debt is bad. It will be our downfall. Stop borrowing immediately. Yadadada.”
“Investors Have Been Lulled To Sleep”: BofAML Deep-Sixes The Recovery Myth
“The S&P 500 is at near record levels despite the fact that EPS hasn’t really changed in 3 years. So which economy is going to show up later this year and in 2018? We think the jury is still out.”
Goldman Took The Pulse Of Corporate America. Here’s What They Found
” The first thing I’d say is that through March 31, as we look at our results, it’s hard for us to see anything that’s suggestive of a material uptick in consumer confidence or consumer or commercial spending.”
Pay Attention! We Got China Credit Data Overnight
Ok, so it’s Friday. And before you get too excited about that, remember that all
“A Pretty Eclectic Collection Of Unrelated Developments”
SocGen’s Kit Juckes probably summed up the overnight session best: Overnight currency drivers have been
What Does An Overheating Labor Market Mean For Stocks? I’m Glad You Asked.
“We estimate that a 100 bp acceleration in labor cost inflation would pose a 2% headwind to Russell 2000 EPS, roughly double the 1% impact we estimate for the S&P 500.”
Trader: “The World’s A Scary Place,” But That’s Always Been The Case
“To be fair, we still have loads of quantitative easing going on and the world remains a scary place. But it’s always been a scary place. We just have selective, as well as short, memories. And if black swans remain your major investing concern, then economic numbers are of very little import.”
Goldman Explains Why The Whole World Is So Goddamn Happy
Because if you’re looking at geopolitical stability, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about. Well actually, that’s not true. There is a whole lot to get excited about. Where “excited” means “fucking terrified.”
Deutsche Bank Explains How You Can Get Off Citi’s “Sketchy” People List
“While the correlation between the level of equities and data surprises in short periods can be strong as it has been recently, the longer the sample the weaker it is as the trend in equities dominates.”
Good News! There’s A 2/3 Chance This Recovery Will Be The Longest In US History
“The bad news is that medium-term recession risk is now rising.”
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