Mohamed El-Erian Explains OPEC’s Nuclear Option

“This brief survey of the most likely types of supply approaches available to OPEC speaks to a larger notion of game theory. Having experienced a gradual and persistent erosion in its dominance of the oil market, OPEC members are being pushed to play a larger cooperative game that involves ever broader coalitions to secure an orderly influence on oil prices.”


‘Not A Great Report For Bulls!’ Just Another Schizophrenic Day In Crude

Well, crude has had an interesting 24 hours. You’ll recall that oil took a tumble on Tuesday after a Bloomberg survey showed production from OPEC members increased 210,000 barrels per day in July. “The $50-level for WTI is a psychological level. People are really beginning to realize that the market probably needs a steady beat of bullish…

Oil Has Best Week In 7 Months As HY Energy Issuance Flatlines. Beeeeeeeep…

I need to know (immediately, if possible), if you are excited about crude. Because some folks certainly are. Indeed, WTI and Brent are headed for their best weekly gains in 7 months on the back of bullish supply data, promises from the Saudis re: export caps, jitters about Venezuelan disruptions, and the first signs that the temerity of…

‘They’re Playing With Fire!’: There’s No Geopolitical Risk Priced Into Oil

“Investors should not interpret this as a sign of quiet trading in the summer and muted price moves ahead. Instead, we view this as a good opportunity to add to their long exposure with cheap optionality, especially with global oil inventories continuing to tighten and geopolitics heating up again.”

Oil Careens Lower On Heavy Volume; Goldman Sees “Green Shoots” For Crude

“While OPEC’s production path remains uncertain, recent fundamental oil data have come in even better than we had expected.”

Oil Gets Good News And Bad News, With A Bias Towards Good

“Tuesday evening’s API data served to embolden bulls further and all that was missing was this morning’s EIA print to confirm things. Well, here it is.”

‘They Have Chased Bears Back Into The Woods’: Oil Clings To Gains As Sentiment Turns

Listen, people are super excited about crude. On Tuesday afternoon, we got the latest API data and it showed an impressive draw, with U.S. inventories falling by 10.2m bbl last week. That would be the largest draw since September. Of course it still has to be “confirmed” by the EIA numbers, which we’ll get later this…

‘Does This Train Have Any Brakes?!’ Goldman Slashes HY Energy

“History has shown that attempting this type of timing has rarely succeeded.”

Oil Spikes Again As Saudi Export Curbs, Anadarko Spending Cuts Ignite Momentum

“If Wall Street rewards them for being more reserved with their activity levels and capital expenditures, then maybe it catches on.”

Oil Bounces Off Lows, Spikes On Saudi ‘Deep Cut’ Headline


‘The Risk Has Risen’: When Will Oil Prices Matter For Junk?

“In our view, the bar remains high for oil prices to become the main directional driver of HY spreads but the risk has risen.”

Oil Suddenly Dives As Oil Tanker Tracking Company Throws Cold Water On Bulls

“I’m surprised that people didn’t already expect higher OPEC output.”

‘Woohoo!’ Brent Tops $50 For First Time Since June 7 As Oil Bulls Get Reprieve

And so, having been given a (probably temporary reprieve) and a new lease on life, the bulls have managed to drive Brent above $50 for the first time since June 7 on Thursday.

Risk-On Still Intact As Entire World Ignores China Stock Plunge: Full Visual Recap

All told, the mood remains “risk-on.”

You’re Just Going To Let U.S. Oil Producers Drink Themselves To Death Aren’t You?

“We believe this may not send a requisite message to rein in drilling activity for all producers. On the flip side, it sends a theoretical message for producers to issue more debt.”