“Forecasting is challenging,” SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne wrote, in his latest. “Some would say impossible.” He’s
Author: therealheisenberg
Blinken Pitches Israel ‘Real Opportunities’ Amid Gaza Devastation
Israel has “real opportunities” to build better relations with Arab countries, Antony Blinken imagined, out
Americans’ Credit Card Spending Soars, Inflation Expectations Plunge
A pair of third-tier US macro updates released on Monday were worth a quick mention
Kolanovic Still Cautious Amid ‘Overbought’ Markets, ‘Complacent’ Sentiment
The raucous rally in stocks and bonds to end 2023 left markets “overbought and sentiment
Macro-Stock Permutations For 2024
“With growth remaining subdued, the onus is on accommodative policy, ample liquidity and lower/contained interest
How Market Makers Cashed In On Jobs Day 0DTE Frenzy
It never gets old. Waking market participants up to what’s really going on behind the
Wilson: Lack Of ‘Forecast Dispersion’ Could Spell ‘High Variance’ In Asset Prices
I’ve avoided being this blunt until now, but here it is: It doesn’t make a
Israel Kills Hezbollah’s Wissam Al-Tawil In Significant Escalation
Israel picked off another top enemy commander on Monday, when Wissam Al-Tawil (stage name “Hajj
Revisiting America’s Institutional Credibility Crisis
Over and over again, I find myself revisiting the notion that America’s experiencing an acute,
Inflation Week To Bring More Evidence Of Fed’s Pyrrhic Victory
It’s inflation week in the US. Inflation data week, I mean. Every week is inflation
Where’s The Deep State When You Need It?
Saturday was insurrection day in America. The third anniversary of the redneck rebellion. All across
Delaying The Inevitable. Forever…
Equities and bonds meandered rudderless into the weekend following a spate of inconclusive data out
Mind SPX 4650
Why do selloffs accelerate? In modern markets, the answer to that question is very often
‘Key Services Sector Hiring Gauge Plunges!’ Is A Headline You’ll Probably Click
To the extent markets needed an “offset” for a hot NFP print and a commensurately
Annoyingly Noisy Jobs Beat Dents Case For March Fed Cut
Hiring accelerated across the world’s largest economy last month, the most important US jobs report
2024’s Most Important Market Events By Month
Just two things matter for asset prices, BofA’s Michael Hartnett reminded investors, in the first
MMF AUM Surges, RRP At 31-Month Low, Free Money Fed Arb Still Enticing
Money market funds took in more than $78 billion in the week to January 3,
It Was ISIS, In Iran, With The Explosive Belts
It was Colonel Mustard, in the library with the candlestick. In the immediate aftermath of
US Sends Abu Taqwa To Meet The General
Fire at will, apparently. A PMF leader was killed in Baghdad on Thursday, the latest
Janet Yellen, Not Jay Powell, Triggered Historic ‘Everything Rally’
What (or who) turned the tide nine weeks ago for markets? Put differently, what was
US Jobs Market Declared Normal. Wage-Price Spiral Risk ‘All But Disappeared’
Americans are still finding plenty of work across the world’s largest economy and wage growth
Twin Blasts At Soleimani Grave Kill Dozens On Assassination Anniversary
Four years ago today, a very strange thing happened: Donald Trump killed Qassem Soleimani. That
Fed, Like The Rest Of Us, ‘Perceives’ Lots Of Uncertainty
The December FOMC minutes were hawkish. Sort of. Maybe. At the margins. That’s probably how
Market Fireworks After New Year’s?
A week ago (maybe two, I can’t remember), one reader suggested that tracking vol dynamics
Macro Amuse-Bouche Is Snoozer As Markets Look To Payrolls
The first of this week’s top-tier US macro data was profoundly uninteresting, where that means
If You Need A Communist Publicist, Feng Shixin Needs A Job
Feng Shixin’s looking for a job if you’re hiring. His resume includes a long stint
Stock Gains Still Possible In 2024 Despite One Down Day, Bulls Argue
It’s still possible that US equities could log gains for 2024. The implication is completely
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