Donald Trump’s a “decent” guy.
That’s according to the man himself who, while detailing the latest series of US strikes on Iran, said he’s “chosen” to spare the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. For now.
Not so for military sites on Iran’s main oil export hub, though. Those were destroyed early Saturday in what Trump called “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East.”
He wasn’t lying about sparing civilians and critical infrastructure on the outpost. No Iranian oil workers were harmed, nor were any economic or petroleum sites targeted. As for the island’s naval assets and other military installations including an air traffic control tower, they’re gone now. Basically. The US also targeted caches of missiles and mines on the island.
Kharg hasn’t been hit in any systematic way by enemy munitions since the war with Iraq. If Trump goes after the oil infrastructure there, it’d be existential for an economy that barely functions as it is.
Oil and gas from Iran’s most significant fossil fuel reservoirs are piped into Kharg. Something like nine out of 10 exported Iranian barrels passes through the island. Simply put: If the US knocks out that infrastructure, Iran’s oil exports will more or less stop. If the US destroys that infrastructure, Iran’s oil exports could be throttled or impeded for years.
Of course, such an outcome would only worsen the supply crunch (it’d also raise eyebrows in Beijing), thereby putting more upward pressure on already high crude prices. The gamble would be that in demonstrating a willingness to starve the nation of its only real source of revenue, the US would scare the regime into ceasing to obstruct traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
If you believe the regime’s propaganda machine, Tehran’s prepared to call Trump’s bluff. State media, quoting an IRGC pronouncement, said Iran will “reduce to ashes” any and every “oil, economic and energy facility” owned, partially-owned or engaged in cooperative ventures with the US in the event Trump targets Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Depending on one’s definition of “cooperation” that could mean another September 2019-style attack on Abqaiq and Khurais, although given ongoing diplomatic back-channeling between Riyadh and Tehran, I doubt the regime would start there, particularly given that any sort of claimed (as opposed to by-proxy) attacks on those facilities could be read by the Saudis as a war declaration.
There were all manner of fireworks overnight Saturday. Another building in Dubai was damaged by falling debris after an air defense battery intercepted an Iranian projectile, and Riyadh said it successfully defended against a swarm of a dozen drones. The IRGC told Emirates residents to stay away from ports which, according to Iran, are legitimate targets given their use by the US military.
Air raid sirens were heard in Bahrain and Israel, which took fire from Iran and Hezbollah. In Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah (the most powerful of the country’s Quds-aligned militia and the outfit once commanded by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was targeted with Qassem Soleimani in history’s most famous US drone strike) attacked the US Embassy in Baghdad.
In the same social media message announcing the strikes on Kharg, Trump said he’ll “immediately reconsider” sparing the island’s oil facilities if Iran “does anything to interfere” with passage through the Strait.
He also repeated his call for the regime to surrender unconditionally. “Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — there is nothing they can do about it!” Trump said. “Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much!”
US gas prices rose near $3.70 on Saturday, up almost 25% since the onset of the war two weeks ago. Reports indicated the Pentagon sent 2,500 additional Marines to the Mideast. The purpose of the new deployment wasn’t immediately clear.
Trump has gotten himself and the country in a pickle.
Either Trump walks away and delivers Iran a strategic victory despite all the tactical losses. Or, he escalates massively. Namely, civilian infrastructure destruction and boots on the ground to hunt down the IRCG in their own backyard.
I don’t quite see a third option. Iran is setting in for a long war. They seem to have more appetite for it than we do.
For folks that will claim Iran will negotiate. Sure they will but what they will demands will be unacceptable to US and Israel.
They need to establish deterrence so that they don’t get hit by Israel and US at will going forward. And the only way to do that is put enormous economic pain at a global scale. Which means oil at 150-200. If you thought the US consumer was squeezed, just wait till oil goes to 6 bucks.
All this to say is that it seems we had no plans. And if we did they were comically bad at anticipating Iran’s response.
Anyway, elections have consequences I guess. We’re for a ride.
Seriously, is there a way we can extricate ourselves from this “excursion” without further harm?
If we cut and run then Iran gets some free hits in on the Gulf States.
Judging by our other Middle East engagements, I would say no.
If we put boots on the ground and that looks frighteningly likely then the seriousness of this war will dawn on all of us.
Modern wares are demand bodies, many bodies. Look at Russia/Ukraine. Conservatively, 1000 casualties a day. We simply do not have the appetite for that. Period.
The equinox is coming and the northern hemisphere is going to want It’s fertilizer.
Maybe Trump thinks that this will prompt China to use its influence on Iran to open up the Strait. Does Xi benefit more from Iranian oil or a weakened US?
…and does this present the golden opportunity for Xi to make his move on Taiwan? While US military stockpiles are low, and the US is committed elsewhere (Iran and Cuba)?
“I’ll take Venezuela and Cuba. You can take Taiwan”.
Persia has been a civilization of consequence for something like 2000 years. Whether or not the small beers of the US “leadership” cabal agree on what that means, our inability to focus on anything older than three weeks will make us blind to the Persian souls we seek to destroy because of our demented president’s gut, we are about to get our own version of the Putin surprise. I used to be an avid viewer of MAS*H. There was a line in that show which was so important that the producers got permission to use the actual line from the CBS Nightly News with Douglas Edwards. The Chinese thought the South Koreans and the US were getting too close to the southern boarder of China so they sent in a huge army causing the US to cry in alarm something like this would create a “whole new war.” Putin has got his whole new war in the Ukraine. Here’s hoping we don’t get ours, for the second time.
China is getting its oil. Iran is shipping oil freely through the SoH and its destination is China.
Does anyone edit his “Truths”? His latest starts saying many countries will be sending naval ships to reopen the SoH, then he rambles, finally he says “hopefully” other countries will decide to send ships. Even if his base doesn’t care how febrile this sounds, the Iranians read it too,
Houthis said they will start (unspecified) action. They’ve been quiet, perhaps waiting to see if their Iranian sponsor would cave, The Houthis could close the Red Sea mouth to tankers, much as they did to shipping last year. The US Navy doesn’t currently have the ships to escort tankers through the SoH, they can’t escort through both SoH and Red Sea. The US will have to divide their efforts, much as Hezbollah is forcing Israel to divide its efforts. Apparently the Proxy Network is still active.
However, Suezmax tankers can use the Suez Canal. So the Saudis may still have a work-around,
. . . as the global Suezmax to VLCC tanker count is roughly equal.
Unless some “mysterious hand” damages a loaded tanker in the Suez canal enough to block it.
Or the Somalis and Yemenis get frisky and start something at the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
I found this very interesting, although presumably biased.
https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-arabia-energy-export-reroute-red-sea-yanbu-iran-war/
I’m late to this thread in reply, but Trump wants the same allies that he bullied, wronged and strong-armed to come rescue him now by sending warships to the Gulf? Good luck.
United States Marine Corp occupies Kharg Island in 5… 4… 3…
And then the Marines dig in and fend off missiles and drones for the coming weeks or months. To turn off exports through Kargh Is would be one airstrike on the terminal dock. Other than symbolism, I wonder why the MEU would be aimed at Kargh Is.
My best guess is that it’s because all the other possible escalatory actions are far worse.
Trump only has one “negotiating” style. Dominance. His go to move is starting at 8-9 on the agression scale and demanding submission. He did not expect Iran to match while expanding the conflict to include the Gulf States.
He assumed that responses would be limited to Israel and that the IRGC would sell the Ayotallah out. When that didn’t happen we got exposed. Now Trump has to respond to not seem week.
Considering how much we’ve bombed them and that we’ve already assasinated the leader of both their religion and state, there’s not many moves left short of mass murder or mainland invasion.
Theoretically it’s leverage to be used in a future negotiation. They’re trying to figure out an exit strategy.