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Weekly: The Stock Rally Has A SPOF Problem
The stock rally has a SPOF problem. Several of them, actually.
Fewer than 10 US tech companies comp
I’m always worried when untethered autocrats of major economies start having a pissing match that is all about them and not us. In current parlance, what could go wrong.
I wouldn’t doubt that Xi understands how wobbly the global AI bubble is. Just might be he’s trying a jab to see how far it tips. Trump needs AI, Xi not so much, being he’s a dictator for life.
Came across this interesting tidbit: https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1974802498385776843
Not sure what to do with that information, but I’m sure somehow, someway that these are the people who would be crushed by any implosion of the market. Then again, being the dumb apes we are, me and the rest of the degenerates on r/wallstreetbets will probably YOLO into leveraged short ETFs and puts and come out smelling like roses.
Well, context is important…….. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSB50203
That seemingly mammoth increase Scott illustrated equates to half a percentage point of the whole. So, the poorest 50% of households went from owning 0.5% of total corporate equities in America pre-pandemic to 1% today. In other words, they owned “no” stocks before, and even after that nothing doubled, it’s still nothing.
Yeah, obviously still a fraction of a fraction. Considering two people have a combined net worth that is greater than the value of the equities owned by 50% of the population tells us everything we need to know about wealth in this country.
Bold move Cotton. This is a dangerous market to short. I stopped after burning my hands two months ago. There are windows for sure, but being positioned for a drawdown is way better than trying to capitalize on the way down after it’s started. Friday was great to push into when the waterfall started because of the mechanical vol strat flows H has consistently mentioned were positioned asymmetrically for such a move. WSB is ok w/ the drawdown, everyone is rly. Overdue. What I’m seeing ppl up in arms about is the crypto crash and platforms shutting ppl out from buying at the lows.
I was wondering the other day whether the US should have something like the SPR but for rare earth minerals.
I have seen some people say that it takes years to set up refining facilities for rare earth minerals. Maybe that is true in the usual case, but if it’s a national priority, it can be done faster.
I think Trump has overstepped, considerably, regarding tariffs. If the courts would do their job, these tariffs would have been repealed a while ago. The president may have temporary authority to issue tariffs, but ultimately tariffs are taxes and only Congress can issue taxes.
MP and Lynas have been busy building refineries in pollution-friendly Texas. Even in that ultra-friendly locale, things take time and barriers pop up along the way.
I keep recalling the hurdles that faced lead smelters after WW-II. for some weird reasons, people just don’t seem to welcome nice industries such as lead smelters and even (Beautiful clean) coal fired power plants close to their homes and schools. Crazy, eh? But as you suggest, national emergency/war powers acts can be used to deal with that kind of tree-hugger opposition.
I don’t want to be Taiwan. First think we will cave on to make a China deal.
I treat mag 7 as surrogate treasuries. On an equal weighted basis to my entire portfolio they are core. As much as a 20% rise in a single stock holding outside mag 7 is negligible on a portfolio basis if you have 15-20 stocks (ex mag 7) achieving good alpha those 15-20 really boost portfolio results above and beyond mag 7. Obviously on a cap weighted portfolio this does not work but if you’ve had ANET, CLS, AXON, IGV, SOXX, APP, APH, PLTR, VRT, SMH etc. As much as I would not have a portfolio solely of Mag, neither would I have a portfolio without, what I consider, the surrogate USTs. It all works until it doesn’t and as Heraclitus says “Panta rhei” everything changes.
“China has the cards.”
Chef’s kiss