Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Fed Chair Bessent?
Fed Chair Scott Bessent isn't a good idea.
Why? Simple: Because he's already beholden to Donald Tru
I’ve been amazed that so many people assumed that Warsh was a shoo-in.
During the “drama” surrounding Mr. Trump’s deliberation over his treasury secretary choice. quite a few sources indicated that Musk was pushing Howard Lutnick. Apparently Lutnick annoyed Trump by lobbying too aggressively for the job.
The Theil faction, led by Vance and Don Jr, were pushing for Bessent who was less of a “household name” than even Lutnick. Chatter was that Bessent hesitated because he wanted Powell’s job, not Yellen’s. “People said” that Bessent was promised Powell’s role, after proving himself in the Treasury secretary role.
And, happily for America, Howard Lutnick was told to bide his time as Commerce Secretary until Bessent was elevated to the Fed chairmanship when he could step into Bessent’s current role.
Lil Marco a serious person? That ship sailed a long time ago.
Waller
Yeah, that’s the obvious, sane choice, particularly given how hard Waller’s been lobbying for the job by insisting tariff-related inflation won’t be a big obstacle to rate cuts, but I can’t see Trump going that route. It’s too conventional. And Waller’s not going to be a stooge. He’d cut rates, sure, but he takes the economics profession very seriously.
H-Man, make no mistake, he will only appoint someone who jumps when he says “cut”. He doesn’t care if they have any qualifications as long as they follow orders. Bessent could be a Musk redux which means he doesn’t make the cut..
Rubio “fake tripped” up the stairs to Air Force 1 to soften the look of trumps trip. Serious is a strong word.
The Fed chair has to convince the FOMC. Once appointed, he is beyond Trump’s control. His term will outlast Trump’s. So the Fed Chair will be able to deny Trump’s wishes, if he wishes to.
Between Bessent and Warsh, who is more likely to want to (deny Trump)? Maybe Warsh, but Bessent while probably more dovish is not totally unserious.
Another question is, how quickly can Trump turn over the rest of the FOMC?
Equity investors would probably like a “serious-but-dove” Chair.
Bessent is very weak in every sense of the word and blows with the wind, He might look socialy capable but it would be like having an empty shirt at the head of the Fed. For that reason Trump will pick him. It would be a bad day for the dollar, the economy, and the U.S.
A thought question: Who was the Fed Chair before Volcker? It does matter!
G. William Miller. Had to look it up- I was only 13 at the time. Why does it matter?
I guess what John is trying to imply that there will be a need for another Volcker to clean up after whoever Trump nominates as vehicle to execute his desire for rate-cutting. So might be interesting to compare the personality of the pre-Volcker guy to whoever comes after Powell. However, I’m not sure the historical comparison will yield much of an insight as we live in the era of “unprecendented”
I don’t like to be snarky, but why does Bessent always look like he’s ingested a few schrooms or just had a nice BM? You never saw Paul V looking that way.
Sorry to be unresponsive but work called. G. William Miller was head of a conglomerate and had a good business reputation, but he wasn’t an economist or lawyer, was a meeting organizer but sober enough to be easily approved. Don’t know why Carter picked him, but he did not like Arhter Burns, Nixon’s man. Carter pushed Burns out and the selection was really Carter’s alone. Miller did not want to raise rates as Carter, Bryzinski and Schulze were all for gwowth. But, the governors ignored him and the economy came out too fast with inflation arond 7%. In 1979, Carter made Miller into Secretary of Treasury and Volcker Fed Chair. Again all Carter’s decision. Volcker had rates all over, it was a zoo. It could be the same – especially with Bessent, a real light-weight.