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Not Out Of The Woods
The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most rapid drawdowns in a c
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The recovery has been too quick. It was mostly retail buying the dip, institutional money may now pile-in, but they have been cautious so far. Gold is overbought; Tesla, Nvidia, and Bitcoin are all suddenly frothy; and don’t look now, but 30-year U.S. bond yields are nearly at 5% again. (Also, healthcare is getting hammered lately.) Those blue and grey lines in the chart above look fairly prescient to me: very consistent with a continued 10-13% drag from tariffs.
“Volatility is your exposure toggle”