War Drums

War Drums

Risk sentiment remained fragile Monday, as European shares warily eyed developments in Ukraine, where both the US and the UK are withdrawing diplomatic personnel as the risk of a Russian invasion mounts. The State Department on Sunday ordered family members of embassy workers in Kyiv to leave the country and warned that the US wouldn't be "in a position" to evacuate American citizens were Russia to invade. "US citizens in Ukraine should be aware that Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine
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13 thoughts on “War Drums

    1. Are you willing to take the opposite side of that argument and suggest Xi would be pleased with the outbreak of war instigated by an ally of his over whom he supposedly has some influence during a Winter Olympics that’s already playing out against a COVID surge in China and at a time when the Chinese economy is on the back foot? If you’re asking whether I’ve discussed the issue with Xi personally, the answer is “no.” That assessment is common sense. It doesn’t mean Putin is going to listen. But you can be absolutely sure they’ve discussed it.

        1. A conspiracy theory adherent might argue that Putin is/was supposed to wait until the Olympics were over so the China could ratchet up tensions with Taiwan at the same time. Stretch US capability to respond on two fronts simultaneously.

          Two weakened leaders who might benefit politically from a limited military conflict working together. What could possibly go wrong?

      1. How long can 100,000 troops hang out along the Ukraine border in the middle of winter in tents I imagine—I wonder if that’s a practical issue worth considering? It’s 16 F in Kiev tonite(I looked it up on weather.com–thankfully I’m in Scottsdale, AZ)

        1. Much longer than they can when the snow melts and the ground turns muddy. Global warming has it’s bright side? Putin Goose Steppes into the muck gets bogged down. What is it with short insecure old world men and Russian mud? Pretty sure local farmers won’t be sad to see the tanks leave before Spring.

  1. Games start Feb 4th. If the thesis is correct about China/Russia/Olympics, Putin needs to go this week or wait until late February after the games are long over. It is really hard to game this one. I am not clear why this came up now? Markets seem to be catching up with this problem…. sentiment is terrible right now for stocks.

  2. Wow. Welcome back market-pricing! I’m old enough to remember when super power stand offs, nuclear and rocket tests, domestic insurrections and worldwide pandemics actually used to affect market sentiment and index levels. What’s next? A climate change discount??

  3. RBC’s Helima Croft wrote that “leading sanctions experts contend that the West could potentially change Putin’s calculus if these nations were prepared to impose serious sanctions on the key Russian financial institutions (VTB, Sberbank, Gazprombank) and on energy exports [but] barring Nord Stream 2, Washington has already indicated that it will seek to exempt energy from the punitive measures currently being prepared….”

    What a joke. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.

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