One of the myriad confounding factors in what’s been variously billed as the “Great Inflation Debate” is the difficulty in assessing the veracity of claims
Month: July 2021
Revisiting The Social Contract In The Age Of Delta
Editor’s note: The following short article was originally published May 27, 2020, on Identity Element. More than a year and three vaccines later, tens of
Lyin’ Eyes And Taper Tremors
Goldman’s clients are asking how the onset of a Fed taper will affect equity markets. This debate is — how should I put this? —
Maybe We’re Worried About The Wrong Tail Risk
Jim Bullard said Friday that the spread of the Delta variant is likely to be a temporary issue. Or maybe “transitory” is better. He also
Like There’s No Tomorrow
“Global interest rates [are] at 5,000 year lows,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett observed, again, in the latest edition of his popular weekly “Flow Show” series. “In
Off The Boil?
It’s like that last peanut butter cookie from the batch you made 10 days ago — stale, but you’ll still take it. With Q2 GDP
In China, The Onslaught Continues
“Even more complicated and grim.” That’s how the Politburo characterized the external environment at a meeting chaired by Xi Jinping. The Party was alluding to the
If The Asteroid Ever Comes
“US stocks rise after GDP reinforces Powell’s dovish stance,” one headline read, on Thursday afternoon. That was probably as plausible a narrative as any other.
McElligott On The Fed, Bonds And Fall ‘Timing Turn’
Market participants may soon brave another “bearish shot” at bonds, which could translate to rekindled interest in some manifestations of the reflation trade in equities.
‘Hot’ US Economy Underwhelms Despite Spending Spree
The US economy expanded at a 6.5% annual clip in the second quarter, the government said Thursday. That was woefully short of consensus. The market
Choose Your Own Narrative, Jobless Claims Edition
400,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, more than expected. It was the second consecutive week that initial claims were 400,000 or more. The
V-Bottom Mania
As it turned out, Chinese state media were correct to predict equities would rebound “quickly” following this week’s egregious rout catalyzed by the escalation of
Powell: Virus ‘Loose Out There. No One Is Safe’
The July 2021 edition of Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC press conference series produced no shortage of amusing soundbites, depending on your definition of amusing. To reiterate,
Fed Shuffles Words Around. Flags ‘Progress’ In QE Language
This is a good time to remind everyone that we needn’t suffer through a press conference after every, single FOMC meeting. We’re doomed to that
‘Hi, It’s China. We Understand You’re Terrified.’
Following a characteristically silly domestic media blitz aimed at calming frayed investor nerves, Beijing dialed up the banks on Wednesday evening. According to the ubiquitous
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