Joe Biden wishes “some of America’s elected officials” understood why it’s still crucial for people to wear masks as the country looks ahead to the summer, by which time the US could be well on its way to herd immunity.
“I hope everybody’s realized by now [that] these masks make a difference,” he said Wednesday, asked about Texas governor Greg Abbott’s decision to lift the state’s mask mandate.
“We are on the cusp of being able to fundamentally change the nature of this disease because of the way in which we’re able to get vaccines in people’s arms,” Biden added. “The last thing — the last thing — we need is Neanderthal thinking.”
It’s hard to disagree. Biden this week moved the timeline on vaccinations for all US adults up to May. If history is any guide, that’s just two months from now.
Of course, there are logistical hurdles and all the usual caveats apply. And just because you have enough vaccines, doesn’t mean everyone is going to get them. But consider that the new stimulus bill will likely be on Biden’s desk next week. That means an extension of key federal unemployment assistance, a fresh round of stimulus checks, and billions in additional relief.
Obviously, businesses want restrictions lifted. Everyone is tired of the pandemic. But it’s difficult to make the case that the economic and social benefits of, for example, lifting mask mandates and abandoning even the pretense of caution with more stimulus imminent and just months to go before widespread vaccination, somehow outweigh the risks of stumbling into a fourth wave.
Since Biden took office, cases have plunged (figure above). It’s been an almost straight line down. The idea of jeopardizing that seems ludicrous.
Also on Wednesday, Biden agreed to a slightly more targeted approach to the new round of direct payments. The threshold will be lowered to $80,000 from $100,000. For couples, the ceiling will be $160,000 compared to $200,000.
This helps ensure the money goes to those with a higher marginal propensity to consume. Remember: That’s the point. Yes, we want to get money to families who need it for necessities. Virtually nobody disagrees with that. The disagreement comes in when folks start arguing over the “need” threshold. But it’s not about “need.” It’s about who’s likely to spend the money and who’s likely to save it. Anyone who spends it into the economy is helping restore jobs.
Read more: Free Money And What To Do With It
In US markets, Wednesday was another tedious session during which equities nervously eyed rising yields for an excuse to selloff. A hodgepodge of catalysts pushed yields materially higher in the early going, with an emphasis on the UK’s borrowing plans.
A gilt-inspired rout eventually abated, but more high-grade supply weighed, as did other factors. Ultimately, yields were cheaper, with the selloff concentrated in intermediates. Tellingly, 7s fell hardest. (Remember what happened last Thursday.)
Markets are now waiting on Jerome Powell (who speaks Thursday) and February payrolls (Friday). It’s conceivable that Wednesday may have seen yields spike even harder had ADP not been a disappointment. ISM services underscored the inflation narrative, but at the same time, the headline also printed a nine-month low.
Given the backdrop, it was no surprise that tech led US equities lower. The Nasdaq had a terrible session. Tech losses overshadowed a better performance from cyclical value, as oil prices rose, helping push five-year breakevens to 12-year wides.
Monday’s blockbuster tech rebound is now a memory — and then some. The Nasdaq 100 is down ~1.75% on the week.
Energy and banks, meanwhile, continue to perform, but the fact that benchmarks are red on days when both are green, but tech struggles, should tell you something. This baton is not easy to pass, so to speak.
The balance of the week will depend on jobless claims, Powell, and payrolls, in that order. By “order” I just mean in terms of scheduling. Any of those three event risks has the potential to move markets more than the other– or not at all.
The only thing that’s clear is that Treasurys are now in the driver’s seat. The price action in US rates is an event all its own. I suppose the only thing I’d say about Powell prior to Thursday, is that he usually sticks assiduously to the script. Even if he does attempt to placate a nervous market, it’s hard to imagine he’d do so in emphatic/dramatic fashion.
Surely, he’s apprised of the extent to which a misstep could be destabilizing. To channel the President, “the last thing we need — the last thing” is some kind of kind miscommunication between Powell and rates traders.
“If history is any guide, that’s just two months from now.” – priceless.
there are so many of those buried in almost every article. i just hope folks catch them
They bring little smiles to my face.
Love your hidden gems- still waiting for your “like/thumbs up” option.
Vaccinate all adults… by May? 2022? If we’re at 75% of adults by the time P1 is widely spreading across the US I’ll be impressed. You don’t get to drop the ball that hard for 12+ months then just fix it because all the sudden you put competent people in charge and enabled them to do the right things. This thing has its own massive inertia already and if Red states insist on being petri dishes for variants then we’re going to be looking at some interesting choices. Imagine quarantining a state. Imagine it was TX.
Imagine it wanted to be?
Republicans will do anything they can to hamper the recovery.
In right wanger country Texas I stopped at Walgren’s on the way home from work, If there were at least 10 customer in the store 80% were wearing masks. An older woman and a late 20’s macho man being the outliers, I gave the macho man a direct and unquestionable stink eye, he didn’t want none and looked away. So there you go at least 70% of us are not meatheads.
I’m down in Florida for a short visit, and I’ve noticed the same thing. For every one person who isn’t masking up in stores or businesses, there are three people who are. Once you ignore the FOX/GoP propaganda, you realize it’s not that big a deal — sort of like buckling up before you venture out on to I-95.
TB, thank you.
You’re welcome.
Hopefully tomorrow’s script has either “WAM” or “Twist” in it.
Sorry Banks and Energy, but the ice is starting to crack, and you won’t be able to stop the “Perpetual Motion Machine” if it REALLY gets going the other way.
97% cash until J-Pow says “twist” or “QE-lite.”
The anti-mask movement over the past year is as blatant a rationalization of selfishness as I’ve ever seen. Also, apparently, a very sizeable percentage of the country should have failed 7th grade algebra class when quadratic equations were introduced. Nothing says freedom like some libertarians inability to understand a basic game theoretic collective action problem.
Math AND Science are out the window for most of these people. They are looking for magic and mystery to explain the how and the why. Their arguments from the beginning haven’t passed the smell test. “It’ll be gone by Easter”, “The virus doesn’t do well in the heat”, The virus doesn’t infect children”, “the virus will disappear like it never even happened”, “the virus will be gone by the fall”, and “the virus is no worse than driving in a car”. None of those arguments makes a shred of sense if you understand even how the flu works, which is clearly not as bad as Covid-19 even though that was one of the arguments being made.
Regarding the “enough vaccinations “ quote. Somebody commented above and I thought I’d clarify a bit. Biden’s statement called out that there will be enough “vaccine” for every American by the end of May. He did not state that we would all have received our individual vaccinations by then. When American will be scheduled and/or receive their individual vaccination shot(s) is nothing but a guessing game right now.
With apologies to TB, “you can always tell a Texan, but you can’t tell him much”.
One thing I think is a very good point in your article is the purpose of stimulus. Stimulus is mean to stimulate the economy, not act as welfare for those who need it. We seem to be conflating the two with this Covid relief package in that stimulus is supposed to stimulate the economy but only for those that absolutely need it (welfare). While I agree we need to get funds to those who absolutely need it, I think it’s ignorant of economics to assume the boost will be far reaching enough to hit all economic sectors if we limit where the funds are going. Is travel and tourism likely to see any benefit from this stimulus package if funds are only going to those who desperately need it and likely will spend it on food, housing, and other necessities? Doubtful! Conversely what is not being discussed here is how we are utterly failing our poor and homeless with gutted welfare programs and instead of working towards fixing those issues, we convert “stimulus” into defacto welfare without calling it welfare to protect the feelings of certain Fox News viewers who are still holding onto the Reaganomics belief structure that welfare is only being used by people who abuse it and never want to work again. There is a very eye opening article in the Atlantic about the UBI project Compton just completed that destroys that narrative and proves that UBI does work, and improves peoples lives and their communities. But I digress, stimulus is stimulus, welfare should be welfare and, if you truly want to stimulate the economy the income threshold should be set high enough for all who are spending and leveraging debt to access it.
“I hope everybody’s realized by now [that] these masks make a difference,” All to frequently these days I see with people writing about what folks “know” about this or that, mask wearing for example. Sure they know. That’s not the problem. The problem is they don’t care. It’s all about, “I want what I want and the rules just aren’t for people like me.” Reason no longer rules. As to vaccinations. Unless you live in a county or zip code that voted for Trump the governor is just not going to allocate much vaccine. I’ll be lucky to sniff a shot before June, even though I’m in the highest risk category, registered and approved by the my county’s health department. I got Parsons and Hawley to thank for that.
Apparently I’m the dark cloud on this site. It is what it is. We are done. The fourth wave is coming and it will be a tsunami. What could have been done wasn’t and opening up while this thing builds is insane. I hate it but I see one more horrible surge and there is nothing we can do about it now.
Jesus, I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see that I’m not. It’s time to batten down the hatches.