Macro Tourist: Post-COVID World Will Be Defined By Rolling Bubbles

Macro Tourist: Post-COVID World Will Be Defined By Rolling Bubbles

[Editor’s note: The following excerpts are from a much longer piece by Kevin Muir, formerly head of equity derivatives at RBC Dominion and better known for his exploits as “The Macro Tourist.” The full piece, which outlines Kevin's trade ideas, is available exclusively to his subscribers. Those interested can check out the new MacroTourist here.] More than three years ago, I wrote a piece titled A SERIES OF ROLLING MINI-BUBBLES. Looking it over today, the details make me smile. Back
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6 thoughts on “Macro Tourist: Post-COVID World Will Be Defined By Rolling Bubbles

  1. This makes a lot of sense. I wonder how much time and energy hedge funds devote to intentionally creating these bubbles. It’s not hard to imagine hedge funds employing similar tactics as political influence campaigns where they identify a specific investment area that they can pump up to profit. It’s probably cheaper and easier to manipulate a place like r/wallstreetbets than trying to squeeze an extra millisecond advantage out of their computers to trade faster. What does it cost to run a Russian-style troll farm?

  2. If I were a Tesla employee sitting on stock grants that had gone up by 10x value this year, I would have my finger poised over the “sell” button…..hoping to wait until January,2021- but ready now.
    About 20% of the outstanding shares of Tesla (190 million shares) were stock grants to employees/directors. This does not even include the huge stock option grants to E. Musk.
    With those shares and RSU account balances going into the 7-8 figures, the temptation to sell is going to be hard to resist.
    They are at the casino.

  3. While I instinctively agree with Mr Muir on this subject, we need to concede that not one of these ‘mini-bubbles’ has burst yet and so the case (that they are bubbles) remains unproven.

  4. I mean I hear “bubble” loud and clear but I’m starting to wonder… now more than a decade after the GFC… do bubbles pop or stop growing or are bubbles now required to grow by FED mandate permanently? Is the bubbling now too big to fail? I mean I really am having a hard time seeing any possible offramp, Powell tried and immediately regretted it. Who would even want to try again?

  5. Fabulous. And the feature of all these new bubbles is that those “investors” that hope they aren’t the last to buy before the crash need to make up a story to justify the trade. Today’s special for that story is the “hidden value” of intangible assets, at least for stocks.

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