Goldman Sees ‘Roaring ‘20s Redux.’ S&P To Hit 4,600 In 2022

Goldman Sees ‘Roaring ‘20s Redux.’ S&P To Hit 4,600 In 2022

"A vaccine is a more important development for the economy and markets than the prospective policies of a Biden presidency," David Kostin wrote, in the very first line of Goldman's 2021 US equity outlook entitled "Roaring '20s Redux." For Kostin, Pfizer's vaccine (or really just a vaccine) should "allow society to gradually normalize during 2021." When you factor in the assumed benign read-through for equities from divided government and a number of additional assumptions, Goldman said you can
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13 thoughts on “Goldman Sees ‘Roaring ‘20s Redux.’ S&P To Hit 4,600 In 2022

  1. Goldman’s prediction sounds just great for the top 20% (or 15 or 25). What about everyone else. How long can the top 20 feed off the bottom 80. Where’s the living wage, universal healthcare and affordable college education to name just a few things that would help the bottom 80%. At this point the unequal distribution of wealth seems unsustainable for much longer. I’m not a great student of history, but doesn’t this always end in violence and destruction of wealth. Care of the golden goose has been neglected for far too long.

    1. Yes. It does feel like something could snap, doesn’t it?

      The elite do not voluntarily give up their favor. Never. They fail to change and adapt. So, yes, these things usually do end up in volence and destruction of wealth.

      A strategy that buys them time is incremental reform. The elite in the US have failed even to make this accommodation.

  2. We can always count on Goldman to keep “investors” (whatever that means) all lathered up.

    The German-hosted development of the miracle, Pfizer vaccine, though the beginning of the end for COVID, is still several months away from availability to the 800M people of Europe and North America. Estimates vary, but maybe next July is a tad early still for any of us readers to be getting the shots. I hope I’m wrong and we can get the shots by April. I’m dying to go to a bar again.

    Last I checked, about three minutes ago, the plaque was still rampaging across the US. Millions are still poor, hungry, homeless, or unemployed, as a result of COVID. These people aren’t going to be contributing too much to the $175, unless one counts the sale of tents.

    And, we have a government that might as well be that of a foreign adversary, hostile to our nation’s aims, like a departing colonial power, performing it’s last extraction of wealth from the land and people, before withdrawing.

    Would be nice to see a 10% correction here, flush out some of the early ticket holders.

    So, paint me “too early” to strap in on Goldman’s rocket ship.

    1. BBG: “EUR/USD is down 0.5% at 1.1763 amid falling European bond yields, broadly lower option skews, and stops below the 55-DMA at 1.1782; fall is slowed by real money buying interest near 1.1750-1.1770, according traders in Europe
      GBP/USD is down 0.4% and near session low of 1.3220 with Brexit talks set to miss another deadline and roll into next week”

  3. This Goldman (weren’t they about to go bust just 12 years ago after Lehman before the government, the public, saved their ass?) piece reads like a memo from la la land. Assumption number 4 is patently absurd. On what planet (la la) does the biggest recessionary shock in a lifetime in a recklessly over-leveraged system simply end after three months in a miraculous, ecstatic V? Why not also simply delineate a (counter factual) assumption that credit is expanding as opposed to collapsing. Where, exactly, will GDP recovery come from? Certainly not from consumers. The vaccine is a huge deal, but we were entering a global recession (depression) ‘before’ the pandemic, remember? Vaccines might just get us back to that baseline after a year and a half of economic destruction.

    1. Exactly what I was wondering, the part about ‘weren’t we ‘entering a global recession’? Seems to me measures like GDP and productivity were not trending in the right direction.

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