China economy Markets

China’s Economy Grew Less Than Expected In Q3, But September Activity Data May Carry The Day

"Unscathed" isn't the right word. Neither is "resilient." Rather than cycle through my mental Rolodex for better options, I'll stick to a straightforward assessment: China is the only major economy in the world expected to grow in 2020. While the latest updates from the IMF (out last week) did include materially improved forecasts for advanced nations, the prognosis is still dour. For emerging markets excluding China, the outlook is getting progressively worse. But for the world's second largest economy, things are going relatively well. Recent data, to the extent you can take it at face value, has been some semblance of encouraging. Industrial output bounced back quickly from the pandemic and has held up well since. PMIs are solidly in expansion territory. Credit growth is reasonably robust, as is trade data, considering the circumstances. Even retail sales managed to post a gain in August, the first since the onset of the epidemic. That's not to say there aren't problems. Core inflation is disconcertingly low, for example, and China is still mired in factory gate deflation which one assumes doesn't bode well for profits once the mechanical rebound from the pandemic plunge i
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2 comments on “China’s Economy Grew Less Than Expected In Q3, But September Activity Data May Carry The Day

  1. libero says:

    I doubt you can believe anything that comes out of china or russia for that matter.

  2. It’s easier to believe that it is closer to the truth than fiction. With billions of people and cell phones it would seem to be a stretch to think that China was suffering like the Europeans or Americans and no one would know. They may be painting a rosier picture but … i believe they really are doing better than almost everyone else. Russia on the other hand is not doing well and they can’t hide it.

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