economy politics


"So stimulus is over until the election(?) And so are Trump’s odds of winning it, according to the vast majority of the punditry", Rabobank's Michael Every wrote Wednesday, following a truly surreal 12 hours, even by the standards of the surreal times in which we live and trade. It's important to recall how the narrative around "phase four" stimulus in the US has evolved. When key provisions from the last virus relief bill began to roll off in late July, most analysts assumed another package was a foregone conclusion or, at the least, more likely than not. Consensus coalesced around a $1.5 trillion headline figure. When the Senate left town in August, forcing Donald Trump to sign a series of "Band-Aid" executive orders, some analysts attempted to make the case that the odds of additional stimulus had actually increased, given that Trump's extension of the federal unemployment supplement tapped a finite pool of repurposed disaster relief funds which, by virtue of being finite, would run out, likely within 45 days. "Happily", that 45-day runway would dead end during the last week of September, when lawmakers would need to pass a stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdo
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10 comments on “Scorched-Earth

  1. derek says:

    Emails? The Senate needs to return at once to launch another Bengazi investigation!

  2. MC says:

    And the Republicans are initiating voter suppression tactics wherever they can…

  3. I am not sure the investing implications of a scorched earth transition. I am guessing that depends on to what extent or what the burn targets are.

  4. runamok says:

    As for a good trade, stuff that does well in an economic depression is a good bet. Toilet paper, cigarettes, booze, and pills. If there’s any money left in the shrunken brokerage account, electric utility companies and Treasuries.

    Seriously, my base case is still that fifth column of data, “No clear winner,” in the survey of market moves in 24-hours chart. There’s going to be tons of volume in the market the last five minutes of trading on election day.

  5. John Banjo says:

    Disgraceland’s final paragraph really nails it … Ladies and Gentleman of the United States, meet your president.

  6. Mr. Dog says:

    Nixon would probably write him another note, thanking him for rehabbing his image. WORST PRESIDENT EVER!

  7. Anaximander says:

    Sitting within the coastal bubbles, trust the (dead wrong last time) polls at your own peril. Returning from one such bubble for an extended stay over the past few months in my hometown, a critical swing city in a critical Obama-to-Trump swing state, the yard signs paint a picture of his enduring appeal. I know this town, its history and its psyche. Assuming Trump survives, there will be no landslide here. At best, it will be close, and only if they count the votes.

  8. It may well take years to tally up the damage done by private Bone spur and I blame Moscow Mitch totally. He could have cut the damage by listening to the witnesses in the impeachment trial and acknowledging that they were telling the truth and that Bone spur and his gang were working in opposition to the best interests of the American and the Ukrainian people (although that would have left Pence in charge and that in itself is a major concern). It’s too bad it isn’t against the law to be inept in high office.

  9. ricardo2000 says:

    Lies aren’t ‘free speech’, they are the end of free speech. Lies are intended to defeat free speech by replacing a search for the truth with pointless wandering after feral lies. This is the mistake Matt Taibbi makes in ‘After the QAnon Ban, Who’s Next?’. A search for the truth is selfless; lies are obviously selfish. So no one should mourn Qanon’s ban from Facebook, Twitter or onyplace else in the public sphere.

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