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2 Americas And The Final Pre-Election Jobs Report

In the new week, markets will navigate top-tier data, geopolitical drama, and domestic discord in the US, as investors continue to prepare for what many believe will be a tumultuous November. The last jobs report before the election is due Friday. Consensus is looking for 850,000 on the headline. If that pans out, it would mean the US labor market is a little more than halfway to recouping the losses from the pandemic. As ever, it's important to distinguish between month-over-month change charts which can be used to show a "V-shaped" recovery where there isn't one, and charts which depict the progress along the way towards regaining pre-pandemic levels. The figure (below) shows the reality and what it would mean if September payrolls prints in-line. To reiterate: While there has most assuredly been a "V-shaped" recovery in retail sales and various housing market statistics, we're not there yet in the labor market. And the momentum is slowing. Although markets (and, if the number is good, The White House) will obsess over the headline number, the more discerning among you will be keen to know how many more job losses are classified as "permanent". Remember, permanent job loss
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6 comments on “2 Americas And The Final Pre-Election Jobs Report

  1. DANA says:

    When suppertime came, the old cook came on deck sayin’
    Fellas, it’s too rough to feed ya
    At seven p.m., a main hatchway caved in, he said
    Fellas, it’s been good to know ya

  2. George says:

    This scenario and situation described in the clearest and simplest of terms has characteristics that remind me of the fable of the Gregorian knot and Alexander the Great in 333 BC… So Simple yet so Complex that a bold approach may wind up being possible after all…Gonna’ take a lot of ‘guts’ and character to resolve !!!

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