economy Markets

Retail Sales Miss May Be Coal Mine Canary For US Recovery

Retail sales, one of the few top-tier economic indicators to stage a "real" V-shaped recovery, missed estimates for August, data out Wednesday showed. The increase for last month came in at just 0.6%, far below the 1% rise consensus expected. The range was 0.2% to 4.6% from 78 economists. This appears to be an across the board miss. Ex-autos rose 0.7%, missing estimates and the control group posted a 0.1% decline against expectations for a 0.3% gain. Note that while monthly change charts can be a powerful visual aid when you're attempting to make a political point, they often betray you when you need them most. Unlike most other marquee data outside of the housing market, retail sales did recover pre-pandemic levels fairly quickly. But the "V" is losing momentum. Things are leveling off. This comes as Congress persists in pre-election brinksmanship vis-à-vis another virus relief bill, which is either dead or still possible depending on who you talk to and when. Extra federal unemployment benefits are running out for early adopters of the program authorized under Donald Trump's executive orders last month, and although the labor market has recovered around 50% of its pand
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6 comments on “Retail Sales Miss May Be Coal Mine Canary For US Recovery

  1. mfn says:

    Inre additional fiscal stimulus: it’s almost as if congressional Republicans are slow-walking a new package as a way to ensure Trump’s defeat in November.

    • Or they don’t want to boost the start of Biden’s economy.

    • Alex says:

      They can slow it to a crawl as far as I’m concerned. The sooner Trump is gone the better off the country will be. I posted yesterday that the Democrats are crazy not to hold out for the 2.2 trillion. Any compromise and Trump will take credit for it. The full 2.2 trillion and Pelosi & Schumer have all the talking points.

  2. D Price says:

    I notice the YOY retail sales hit expectations at 2.5%. However missed by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Is this just that the respondents cannot do math? or is there something else at work here such as a rounding error?

  3. Ria says:

    The comments all suggest the country is going to have a difficult fall and winter, no matter what happens. There will be more suffering.

  4. payshunt says:

    I tried to give a homeless guy a twenty yesterday and he turned it down. He said he wanted a $200 debit card. His kids looked hungry.

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