‘Not A Great Place’

‘Not A Great Place’

"I don’t think anybody should leave any bank earnings call this quarter simply feeling like the worst is absolutely behind us and it’s a rosy path ahead", Michael Corbat told analysts Tuesday, underscoring the notion that whatever you want to say about the trajectory of the US economy, "V-shaped" probably isn't the correct characterization. Between them, the three big banks who reported earnings on Tuesday set aside nearly $30 billion for souring loans in Q2, more than expected and the most
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6 thoughts on “‘Not A Great Place’

  1. “The rapidity with which relations between China and the west are deteriorating is remarkable, indeed.”

    I keep thinking back to, what was it, 2012? The dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Daiyu islrts heated up. The reaction from the Chinese population was instructive. Japanese products were boycotted and Japanese car dealerships were attacked, as were drivers of Japanese cars. despite their reputation for better quality, Japanese products were boycotted. Some of this reaction was fanned up the Chinese state media and the resentments have deep roots.

    But what makes us think that US products will continue to be welcomed in China if relations get even worse. Sure, exports are not a big part of US GDP, but many US companies operate in China and, for some, it has been a good source of revenue and earnings.

    Wait until you see iPhones being clawed out of hipster hands in Beijing and thrown down the sewer by “patriotic” mobs. But maybe the government will seek to restrain things until the US election. That would be smart, but Trumps & Pomps just might make that impossible for Xi.

    1. The Pfizer phase 1 data for 2 of their mRNA vaccines was published a couple of weeks ago. The Moderna phase 1 data for one cohort with their mRNA vaccine was published today. There are of course many other vaccines in trials. Note that no mRNA vaccine has ever been approved–this is new technology. I believe all of the “Warp speed” funded vaccines are new technologies.

      With any vaccine development, there are often delays with data release, but there’s no way that the trials data for an approved vaccine wouldn’t become public at some point. However, this will play out in public in a very chaotic manner, probably. There will be a press release touting completion of phase 3 trials, “we have submitted the package to FDA for review”, etc. Possibly several companies will complete trials within weeks of each other. I imagine the data won’t immediately be available to the public at the time of submission. However, the FDA submission will only be the beginning. Even with rapid approval, the manufacturing and distribution will take time (even though manufacturing is beginning at-risk for the leading vaccines). Especially if there are multiple vaccines in review, there will be confusion in the public. There will be lots of anti-vax Facebook discussion. A proper effort would involve a carefully planned and executed public information campaign, which ideally would build on the strong, published data supporting the approval. But the FDA has already stated a pretty low bar for vaccine approval–so there will likely be room for criticism of the data, and possibly reluctance to get the vaccine even for non-anti-vaxxers if the roll-out isn’t done right–and I really hope a poor vaccine doesn’t get improperly approved due to political pressure. Unfortunately that’s possible in the current environment. Even in the best case, this will not be like flipping a switch.

      You see headlines like “The market rose on renewed hopes for a coronavirus vaccine.” It’s not that simple.

      1. The fact is no vaccine has ever been approved for any member of the coronavirus family. Ever. So hope floats. In lieu of a vaccine ever coming to market, there will be a well-orchestrated, timely release of “good vaccine news” during market downturns over the coming months. We’ll see if these headlines continue to keep stocks afloat…

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