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‘This Is The First Major Shakeup’: Elizabeth Warren Overtakes Joe Biden In Iowa

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8 comments on “‘This Is The First Major Shakeup’: Elizabeth Warren Overtakes Joe Biden In Iowa

  1. Selzer has a great track record with how she conducts her polls, even so far as getting an A+ from Nate Silver. That said, it’s still obviously early in the election cycle. I always caucus and I’m looking forward to it again. My formative years were the late 60’s and early 70’s so I’m all about ending regime change wars, getting the top marginal Federal tax rates back to where they were from the mid-1950’s through 1979. Medicare-For-All is the only logical choice. No more Third-Way Democrats for me, so it’s Warren or Sanders all the way. I will not caucus, nor vote, for Biden. Joe’s part of the problem as I see it. Biden does not support labor union/blue collar workers regardless of what he says. His record is available for all to see (as was Clinton’s).

  2. When, do we think, will the market start focusing on the election and associated political risk?

    I would think that Warren and Sanders would be viewed as a particular risk factor for certain industries, while Biden, Booker, Harris, Buttigieg would be considered more “business as usual”, and Trump has already proven himself a risk factor for trade-dependent industries.

    Maybe not really a tradable factor until deeper into the primaries?

    • That’s a good question. I think the markets would be very pro-Biden–A centrist Democrat who doesn’t govern via tweet. I think any other Democratic candidate would be viewed as a negative, particularly in certain industries.

      So, IMO, it’s Biden vs. the Field for the markets. And the Field looks like it is starting to edge ahead in the form of Warren. When do markets price that in? I have no idea.

      • Harvey Cotton

        I would wager two excellent proxy stocks would be Core Civic and Geo Group. Once those collapse, you can view that as the market pricing in a Progressive Administration.

        • Billy Oxygen

          Two stocks that helped clarify things for me in late 2016. Both had lobbyist who where fundamentally associated with Jeff Sessions at the time.

          It appears neither of the two have really fared all that well after the initial Trump surge. Hadn’t checked in on them in a awhile. I figured that detaining immigrants and the rest of the border mess would have been a boost for them. With friendly policy in place and yet marginal performance, I agree they are good proxies.

  3. Managed care, large pharma, private prisons, for profit education, all seem like groups to watch.

    Others like FB, GOOG, coal, banks may have too many idiosyncratic factors to be clear indicators. Is that bank move political or rates, etc.

  4. I’d vote for Warren. She appears to be open and honest. That would be a Yuge change.

  5. Vicissitude

    Re: ” not polling strongly, nobody (least of all him) seems to be able to explain why he’s barely polling at all.”

    A little bit like Walker in 2016! I was always amazed that trump steamrolled everyone with stupid tweets. Walker was in a position to do the GOP bidding, but he never found a spark, while trump could kill people and not lose voters (it’s still strange)!

    Vissy

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