cash Macro Tourist

Trader: ‘Cash Is Not Nearly As Attractive As Bearish Pundits Make It Sound’

"...what always intrigues me is the disconnect between what the market believes and what is the most likely outcome."

"...what always intrigues me is the disconnect between what the market believes and what is the most likely outcome."
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3 comments on “Trader: ‘Cash Is Not Nearly As Attractive As Bearish Pundits Make It Sound’

  1. Error404

    Fascinating to see PMs taken behind the wood-shed with real rates still negative.

  2. Anonymous

    Each successive peak and trough when you look at interest rates has been lower than the one which preceded it.

  3. It’s pretty interesting to me that the FF-Taylor spread barely went positive at the end of the last expansion! Yet, people talk about the fed “murdering” that cycle, and the economy (U.S. and global) is structurally much weaker now. Debt, demographics, and inequality are going to have a stranglehold on monetary velocity until something drastic changes. If there were ever a time for real rates to fail to go positive, this is it. And with Netflix trading at $380, I’d say “the market believes” the rocket ship is still heading higher. Sure, there are bearish voices out there, but to say the consensus is bearish seems a pretty big stretch.

    H, any idea if Kevin reads the comments when you post his stuff on your site?

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