Things were going along reasonably well and then Trump started talking. There were so many soundbites today between his insane Mueller tweets and the veritable deluge of “covfefe” that came amid talks with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, that documenting it all is an exercise in futility.
Generally speaking, this is all you need to know about U.S. stocks today:
- TRUMP SAYS HE DOUBTS CHINA TRADE TALKS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL
Pres. Trump on trade: "China's become very spoiled. The European Union has become very spoiled…because they always got 100% of what they wanted form the United States." https://t.co/CFdzczE0fE pic.twitter.com/IjpGhqZfT7
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) May 17, 2018
Time stamp it:
Speaking of “doubts”, I doubt whether stocks are going to be able to stomach much more when it comes to rising yields. 3.11 on 10s now – here it is panned out to capture when retail sales hit on Tuesday:
30Y past 3.25 now (highest since June 2015):
Overnight, 10Y reals above taper tantrum levels:
European markets managed to close higher on the day despite ongoing concerns about Italy and what the populist government there is likely to mean for the country’s fiscal position. The bond market has attempted to render its judgement this week with yields spiking…
… and spreads to bunds blowing out:
For their part, Di Maio and Salvini claim what you see in those charts amounts to “blackmail”.
Italian equities stabilized on Thursday, but still look shaky. Overall, European equities are back to their highest levels since January:
Meanwhile, at least the pound’s recent weakness is good for something:
Crude couldn’t hang on to all of its gains:
But Brent topped $80 for the first time since 2014 and Goldman thinks there’s more to come:
This probably should have been a decent day for the real (which, you’re reminded, has been under quite a bit of pressure amid broader EM jitters and electoral uncertainty) after the BCB failed to deliver a Selic cut that was expected by 37 of 39 economists. Instead, USDBRL breached 3.70 despite the BCB hold. This really isn’t great:
The decision not to proceed with (another) rate cut weighed on Brazilian equities. This was at least the second-worst day for the Brazil ETF since the May 18, 2017 circuit-breaker-tripping madness:
Remember that piece of shit BRZU? You know, the one that plunged 48% in a day last May? Well it was down ~12% today:
Elsewhere in EM, the lira was down again. It’s just a goddamn train wreck there:
This headlines was funny:
- Turkey’s Erdogan Said to Have Met Gov. Cetinkaya Alone Wednesday
Not helping matters was Carmen Reinhart. To be clear, just about the last thing EM needed was the following:
That’s not likely to help sentiment – at all.
Speaking of things that won’t help sentiment (at all), we’ll leave you for now with Sarah Huckabee Sanders attempting to explain why Trump referred to Mexicans as “animals” on Wednesday:
Press Sec. Sanders says Pres. Trump's "animals" comment yesterday referred to MS-13 gang members.
— ABC News (@ABC) May 17, 2018