By Jimmy Carter as originally published by WaPo
As the world knows, we face the strong possibility of another Korean war, with potentially devastating consequences to the Korean Peninsula, Japan, our outlying territories in the Pacific and perhaps the mainland of the United States. This is the most serious existing threat to world peace, and it is imperative that Pyongyang and Washington find some way to ease the escalating tension and reach a lasting, peaceful agreement.
Over more than 20 years, I have spent many hours in discussions with top North Korean officials and private citizens during visits to Pyongyang and to the countryside. I found Kim Il Sung (their “Great Leader”), Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, and other leaders to be both completely rational and dedicated to the preservation of their regime.
What the officials have always demanded is direct talks with the United States, leading to a permanent peace treaty to replace the still-prevailing 1953 cease-fire that has failed to end the Korean conflict. They want an end to sanctions, a guarantee that there will be no military attack on a peaceful North Korea, and eventual normal relations between their country and the international community.
I have visited with people who were starving. Still today, millions suffer from famine and food insecurity and seem to be completely loyal to their top leader. They are probably the most isolated people on Earth and almost unanimously believe that their greatest threat is from a preemptory military attack by the United States.
The top priority of North Korea’s leaders is to preserve their regime and keep it as free as possible from outside control. They are largely immune from influence or pressure from outside. During the time of the current leader, Kim Jong Un, this immunity has also applied to China, whose leaders want to avoid a regime collapse in North Korea or having to contemplate a nuclear-armed Japan or South Korea.
Until now, severe economic sanctions have not prevented North Korea from developing a formidable and dedicated military force, including long-range nuclear missiles, utilizing a surprising level of scientific and technological capability. There is no remaining chance that it will agree to a total denuclearization, as it has seen what happened in a denuclearized Libya and assessed the doubtful status of U.S. adherence to the Iran nuclear agreement.
There have been a number of suggestions for resolving this crisis, including military strikes on North Korea’s nuclear facilities, more severe economic punishment, the forging of a protective nuclear agreement between China and North Korea similar to those between the United States and South Korea and Japan, a real enforcement of the Non- Proliferation Treaty by all nuclear weapons states not to expand their arsenals, and ending annual U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
All of these options are intended to dissuade or deter the leadership of a nation with long-range nuclear weapons – and that believes its existence is threatened – from taking steps to defend itself. None of them offer an immediate way to end the present crisis, because the Pyongyang government believes its survival is at stake. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s statement last week that “we have lines of communications to Pyongyang. We’re not in a dark situation” is a good first step to defusing tensions.
The next step should be for the United States to offer to send a high-level delegation to Pyongyang for peace talks or to support an international conference including North and South Korea, the United States and China, at a mutually acceptable site.
I invite anyone reading Carter’s words to write a cogent and persuasive rebuttal as to why what he writes (1) is in error, (2) disadvantages the US, and (3) would in no way advantage the US.given the “reality on the ground.”
Jimmy Carter never negotiated a single advantageous geopolitical outcome for the US as President. The Carter Doctrine was an overblown commitment to Saudi Arabia (and its fellow oil grand pubahs) based on the Soviet Union entering that rat hole of ambition Afghanistan with the notion they would then launch a campaign of domination across the Middle East. It was preposterous then and looks downright stupid as a basis for policy in hindsight.
He was hammered by Reagan in the 1980 election because he was (quite correctly) perceived to be ineffectual and inept at everything from foreign affairs to the economy (remember inflation?).
I have carefully read Mr. Carter’s proposal…here is my takeaway various payload capacities and striking ranges.
1. He’s quite clear about what No. Korea wants from the United States…NOWHERE DOES HE TELL US WHAT THEY WILL GIVE IN RETURN
2. In fact, Carter tells us what they will NOT give us in return..an end to their construction (and eventual commercialized distribution) of a multi range nuclear arsenal.
3. Carter is part and parcel of the enabling Presidential regimes that have, to this point, been “reasonable” and operated within the boundaries of “normal” diplomacy and the sanction approving monopolist..the UN. This entire multi decade exercise has done nothing but buy No Korea time so than now..today..it’s very close to a number of nuclear armed missiles that have “good enough” targeting capacity.
Talking respectfully will NOT move Kim Jong-Un anywhere..he could care less what his people think..in fact, they’ll think exactly what he tells them to think. Being impulsive and unpredictable may not work for Trump in most things…in this it is precisely what. is called for. The notion that Tillerson doesn’t know what Trump is up to or is being contradicted is naive. This is orchestrated and it’s making Jog-Un a very nervous dude. Jong-Un knows all about statements for “public consumption..”
and Tillerson can use that to great advantage by ascribing the same thing to Trump.
What is the solution? It runs thru China and embraces a vision that Tillerson needs to sell about the entire China Seas area to Xinping…and it clearly involves the elimination of Jong-Un. Whatever concessions are made concerning Peninsula reunification..or confederation..and the disposition of US naval forces in return for the end too this nuclear arsenal catastrophe in the making need to be made to Xinping..not the boy murderer.
Carter’s proposal is one of many he’s made over the years. Each one done with the clear intention of trying to salvage something from hastily pathetic Presidency. He is continually sold a bill of goods and then passes them off to the US public as credible, reasonable solutions. I’d believe in the Three Little Pigs before I’d sign on the Carters 3 notions.
You are giving trump way too much credit if you seriously think he is capable of orchestrating anything other than what he wants for lunch.
Marty, well done and thanks to President Carter which he has done on numerous occasions gone straight to the heart of the matter.
I concur, well spoken, Marty.
Every step towards a reasonable negotiation taken by Tillerson has been met with a tweeted threat from trump, either aimed at N. Korea or aimed at Tillerson. Our unsteady position right now is due to trump’s antagonistic response to anything from N. Korea. It seems the best way to “handle” the equally unbalanced brain in N. Korea is to offer “respect” so he can show his people, his poor citizens, that he is respected, which is really what he seems to want more than anything. Gee, sounds just like our guy.
Having a sit-down meeting as Carter suggests seems to be the right approach.
Actually, even better, removing trump from office would resolve at lot of problems.
“Actually, even better, removing trump from office would resolve at lot of problems.” <<—- Give the guy named Murphy a winning lottery ticket!!
This article tells you why Trump doesn't seem to understand that he's exactly what Tillerson and millions of others have observed about Trump: #TIAFM. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-12/trump-s-dangerous-disability-it-s-the-dunning-kruger-effect
As Dunning of Dunning-Kruger fame has written:
'"In many areas of life, incompetent people cannot recognize just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands this lack of self-insight: For poor performers to recognize their ineptitude would require them to possess the very expertise they lack. To know how skilled or unskilled you are at using the rules of grammar, for instance, you must have a good working knowledge of those rules, an impossibility among the incompetent. Poor performers fail to see the flaws in their thinking or the answers they lack. What’s curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious. Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge.' (David Dunning)" As quoted at the blog notesfromdisgraceland: https://notesfromdisgraceland.wordpress.com/2017/03/09/trump-in-wonderland/
This explains why the fucking moron will keep repeating the same moronic and obviously unacceptable behavior, i.e., because he believes via illusory superiority that he's smarter than everybody and anyone who dares state to the contrary. #Fakenews anyone? A wonderful example of the psychological condition can be found in the criminal case of "McArthur Wheeler, who robbed banks with his face covered with lemon juice, which he believed would make it invisible to the surveillance cameras. Wheeler's incompetence was based on his misunderstanding [of] the chemical properties of lemon juice as an invisible ink." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning—Kruger_effect Sound like Wheeler could be a sibling of Eric and Don, Jr.
Man are we screwed or what?
Elections in 2018 are just around the corner. Is there a way to find out which GOP’rs are out or up for re-election in 2018? Those people are the targets. Replace them with Democrats. Every opportunity you have to remove a Republican – do it. That is the best way to clean the swamp.
From today and every day, demand trump’s removal from office, period, no discussion. Every person, regardless of party affiliation, faces the same risks if he is allowed to continue this sham as president.
AND once this has been done, some serious changes must be made to limit and control the acts of any president — far too much misbehavior, if not actual corruption, is allowed and must be stopped. Example: To have the power to Pardon a person like Sheriff Arpaio/Arkansas, and the crimes he was found guilty of, that were violations of constitutional rights of people, and to be allowed to walk away from a guilty verdict only because he supported trump… seriously flawed use of the Presidential Pardon! Also, keep in mind that he has said he can pardon his corrupt children as well as himself.
Damn it Marty, you had to say “cogent.” That’s the one word that has limited a solution to this ongoing ‘Clash of the “Morons.”‘ Just because some of the leadership may be “rational” (which includes the inherent biases of self-interest, indoctrination from birth and the resulting in being mis or inadequately informed) it doesn’t mean they can arrive at optimum decisions for Korea or the world at large.
I have always liked Jimmy Carter, and at least some of his ideas, not necessarily all of them. In an environment free of KJU and his ideologue enablers – and a chance to think and express themselves freely – I seriously doubt that either the people (not the governments) occupying southern Korea and the ones occupying northern Korea really want a divided culture and country. I seriously doubt whether the vast majority of those united peoples really want their own nuclear weapons. I reason that whether a unified Korea aligns with China or the US – alignment will take place with or without a nuclear weapon resourced unified Korea. Alignment with China or the US can provide a united Korea viable nuclear deterrents from foreign invasion without the burdens of a nuclear weapons program.
The bottom line here is the rigid and brittle resistance of the self-interest/self-preservation of N. Korea’s dictatorship. KJU knows if he loses power – and lives – he will be prosecuted and likely executed for “Crimes Against Humanity.” He has zero chance to fade away or survive as a wealthy recluse retired leader as some deposed leaders have. KJU in almost every “cogent” scenario is a “dead man” walking – unless he can continue to walk this tight rope anchored on one end by China and the other by the US – and that is a highly improbable scenario consider China and US economic interests.
Knowing this – sooner or latter, internal power structures in either N. or S. Korea, and or – but more likely China will remove KJU and his regime from power and then may allow a more normalized relationships between S. and N. Korea – if not a unified Korea. In the final analysis the trade relationships and interdependent economies between the US and S. Korea and the US and China are far more valuable economically to all concerned – than the continued existence of a multi-state Korea is to either China, the US and certainly the rest of the world.
The Trump Administrations continuing inability to control the non-cogent and irrational (sorry Jimmy C. – by no stretch of any definitions of “cogent” or “rational” can they be used to describe Donald Trump) outflows from Trump, but only make a bad and dangerous situation worse. Speaking of “worse” – that the current Congress doesn’t step in and remove this unprepared, unqualified, non-cogent, and demonstrably mentally imbalance US “President” from office – only shows that the US actually has far greater problems with its own national democracy, for profit media/election industries here at home – than how KJU try’s to survive the dilemma of his own family’s enablers and his making.
Let’s be clear. I invited a “cogent” and persuasive rebuttal as to where Carter’s words are in error, disadvantages the US or would in no way advantage the US. given the “reality on the ground.” I submit Carter writes nothing erroneous, he does not suggest anything which disadvantages the US, and does suggest something that would advantage the US given the “reality on the ground.”
This is not about Carter’s presidency or his peanut farm. It’s about the wisdom of his words and the guidance it provides. Carter’s article lays out NK’s position, concerns, fears, motivations, and negotiation points. Carter has never been accused of being a liar. He informs us that “Over more than 20 years, I have spent many hours in discussions with top North Korean officials and private citizens during visits to Pyongyang and to the countryside. I found Kim Il Sung (their “Great Leader”), Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, and other leaders to be both completely rational and dedicated to the preservation of their regime.” His experiences and first hand report is valuable to know and should be considered.
Carter does not endeavor to agree with, support or disagree with any of NK’s or US positions on any point. His singular purpose is to endeavor to bring the parties to a table that ultimately negotiations can commence. Why? Because Carter like every single head of state throughout history knows that a clash between sovereigns are most often handled in three ways: 1. By agreement. 2. By war and its consequences. 3. Remain unresolved by neither.
Carter article does make assertions, observations and renders opinions and conclusions
A. Carter asserts:
What NK officials have always demanded is:
1. Direct talks with the United States, leading to a permanent peace treaty to replace the still-prevailing 1953 cease-fire that has failed to end the Korean conflict.
2. They want an end to sanctions, a guarantee that there will be no military attack on a peaceful North Korea, and eventual normal relations between their country and the international community.
B. Carter observes:
1. The top priority of North Korea’s leaders is to preserve their regime and keep it as free as possible from outside control.
2. Until now, severe economic sanctions have not prevented North Korea from developing a formidable and dedicated military force, including long-range nuclear missiles, utilizing a surprising level of scientific and technological capability.
3. There is no remaining chance that it will agree to a total denuclearization, as it has seen what happened in a denuclearized Libya and assessed the doubtful status of U.S. adherence to the Iran nuclear agreement.
4. There have been a number of suggestions for resolving this crisis, including
(a) military strikes on North Korea’s nuclear facilities,
(b) more severe economic punishment,
(c) the forging of a protective nuclear agreement between China and North Korea similar to those between the United States and South Korea and Japan,
(d) a real enforcement of the Non-Proliferation Treaty by all nuclear weapons states not to expand their arsenals, and
(e) ending annual U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
C. Carter opines as to 6(a) – (e):
1. All of these options are intended to dissuade or deter the leadership of a nation with long-range nuclear weapons – and that believes its existence is threatened – from taking steps to defend itself. None of them offer an immediate way to end the present crisis, because the Pyongyang government believes its survival is at stake.
D. Carter concludes:
1. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s statement last week that “we have lines of communications to Pyongyang. We’re not in a dark situation” is a good first step to defusing tensions.
2. The next step should be for the United States to offer to send a high-level delegation to Pyongyang for peace talks or to support an international conference including North and South Korea, the United States and China, at a mutually acceptable site.
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Carter’s assertions in A.1-2, and his observations on B. 1-2 are beyond dispute. As to B.3, his assertion that
there is no remaining chance that Kim will agree to a total denuclearization is abundantly clear to most rational observers under present conditions. As to B.4(a) – (e), these are accurate. Although there have been other suggestions for resolving this crisis such as lock, load and fury, etc., for present purposes they are of no moment.
In C. 1., Carter opines that B.4(a) – (e) are intended “intended to dissuade or deter the leadership of a nation with long-range nuclear weapons – and that believes its existence is threatened – from taking steps to defend itself,” provide no path to end the present crisis because Kim “believes its survival is at stake.” This is hardly an opinion that one can differ with if demonstrable evidence is used.
Finally, Carter suggests an alternative to the status quo of the US dictating to Kim that he first agree to a total denuclearization before the US will agree to it offering to send a “high-level delegation to Pyongyang for peace talks or to support an international conference including North and South Korea, the United States and China, at a mutually acceptable site.”
In sum, from my prospective, (1) Carter is not in error in what he has written, (2) nothing he proposes disadvantages the US , and (3) peace talks or an international conference advantages the US as without negotiations zero can be accomplished to diffuse the ongoing powder keg given that the abundance of evidence is that preemptive military option is out of the question.
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China does have have an interest in diffusing the powder keg. China does not have an interest in a unified Korea if it is other than a Korea that it totally controls. The land that makes up North Korea acts as a military buffer zone for China and the DMZ is militarily precious to it. The US and South Korea has no interest in giving up their military alliances nor will SK let go of its democracy. A destabilized NK government would cause HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS and maybe more North Koreans to pour over the border into China, a condition that China has no interest in. The UN sanctions sound great. The reality is another matter. How much food China send into NK is different question altogether. China’s greatest fear is a collapsed NK government.
Those that insist that Kim Jomg-un is crazy who and simultaneously press for his “elimination” fail to suggest how to go about eliminating him. Should it be done militarily? By election? Will China or the US send in specially trained Ninjas or Navy Seals? Rhetorical, indeed!?
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As an endnote.
It’s apparent that threatening this adversary causes it to launch missiles as he uses it for cover and when he does so there is no reprisal of equal measure.
It’s apparent that to date Trump’s conduct has thrown relations with S Korea and other allies in the region into chaos a result of the multiple missile launches.
It’s apparent that drawing red lines with this adversary makes the US look weak and not stronger in the eyes of all our enemies.
It’s apparent that calling this adversary names is not productive as Kim uses those occasions to ratchet up Trump to do the same and look like a president acting like a clown.
Why did not Mr. Beer Summit himself, Peace Prize President Obama, tackle this issue along the lines that Carter suggested? Was Carter’s assessment too simplistic or naive? Didn’t his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, have the talent to make straightforward peace talks happen? The point is, it’s very damn difficult, despite “competent leaders who have the best interests of their people” at heart.
well yeah, but “nuclear standoff” isn’t one of those “difficult” situations where you have the option of just saying “oh well, fuck it. it’s too hard so lets just nuke each other.”
it’s not like going to the store and having a “difficult” decision between BBQ chips and regular, so you just close your eyes and pick one.
In order to justify the position that Kim is willing to initiate a preemptive war against the United States and it’s allies one must accept that he is crazy, stupid and that he is suicidal. Does anyone truly believe that Kim has it in mind that he can conquer the
In order to justify the position that Kim is willing to initiate a preemptive war against the United States and it’s allies one must accept that he is crazy, stupid and that he is suicidal. Does anyone truly believe that Kim has it in mind that he can conquer the US and its allies with his arsenal? Does anyone truly believe that Kim has it in mind that he can survive a war with the US and its allies? The overwhelming evidence points to the fact that he is not crazy, stupid or suicidal, or that he thinks can conquer the US and its allies with his arsenal, or survive a war with them.
If that’s true, then what’s his purpose in possessing a nuclear arsenal?
Is it to harass his neighbors?
For defensive purposes?
Could it be for the reasons set forth on Carter’s article?
Nor do I accept (even after I quit laughing!) that he is a smart calculating man and is taunting trump as some kind of clever plan to draw him out and expose his insanity to the rest of the world — as another regular reader/poster wrote under some other H article in the last couple of days. Neither one of these Losers (trump’s favorite) are smart – they are nothing more than school yard bullies playing with dangerous weapons, unable to control their impulses; if they were, we could just ignore them.
I think Jimmy Carter has guided insight and is simply a peaceful person. I like him.