El-Erian: Bitcoin To Fall By At Least 50%, Widespread Use ‘Not Going To Happen’

Well, Bitcoin fell nearly 7% to the lowest intraday level since August 22 on the heels of Jamie Dimon’s hilariously blunt assessment of the outlook for the “currency”, which he says will ultimately be shut down by governments.


Needless to say, that brought out the crazies – a cacophony of verbal tomato throwing from the crypto peanut gallery ensued.

Well, this morning it was Mohamed El-Erian’s turn and his message was similar, although not as Dimon-ish as Jamie’s.

“It’s certainly a disruptive technology, but it won’t see widespread use,” El-Erian told CNBC early Wednesday.

“The current pricing assumes massive adoption, and I don’t think governments will allow the amount of adoption that’s currently priced in” he continued, adding that in his estimation, Bitcoin needs to fall by at least 50%: “I would say at least half of what it is, a third of what it is.”

“Current prices assume massive adoption, which is not going to happen,” he concludes, rubbing it in.

So cue the cat calls about how El-Erian “just doesn’t understand” the technology he’s talking about and how there’s no way governments can stop the proliferation of cryptos.

But to all the folks out there for whom getting rich on a fad isn’t enough, just remember this about your “revolution”: when it goes to zero you’re going to have to own it then too. At least you’ll have the “evil” government to blame, which means that at the very least, your overarching view of the world will be validated.

Here’s the clip:

Bitcoin is ‘disruptive technology’ but pricing assumes massive adoption: Mohamed El-Erian from CNBC.



7 thoughts on “El-Erian: Bitcoin To Fall By At Least 50%, Widespread Use ‘Not Going To Happen’

  1. I agree
    Is there a need? I would say, there is….

    However, Government is a Thief and is ruthless and will not allow for this to get out of hand

    See FATCA, et al, for all examples of government overreach and high handedness.
    The End

    • yeah and see that’s the thing. you don’t have to be pro-government or anti-Bitcoin to know where this is going.

      in fact, there’s a certain extent to which, if you are a real believer in Bitcoin and the threat it poses to central banks, then you should know better than anyone why it’s going to zero.

      • referencing yesterday’s article which highlighted the massive energy consumption needed to run the blockchain technology … I’m interested in seeing how quantum computing affects the efficiency of the algo programming. For the record, I agree, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed and ECB are going to drop the hammer on Bitcoin but it seems a logical tool for Russia — and by proxy the nation states it props up — to continue leveraging in effort to destabilize the west.

  2. It’s going to zero, you said? Can you add when?

    It’s so comfortable to come up with opinions on topics that are so “overheated” as bitcoin. Have you noticed that blockchain tech is evolving very rapidly, there is very large number of major organizations working on various initiatives. So it is not very likely that cryptocurrencies as such will go to zero. People just switch the platforms. Do you remember Netscape browser?

    • Expecting anyone to accurately call the top of a bubble isn’t reasonable. However, it will likely be some geopolitical tension that leads to a crackdown. For instance, North Korea using crypto currencies to circumvent sanctions or Russian oligarchs using it to circumvent the Magnitsky act could lead to a coordinated crackdown by multiple governments simultaneously.

  3. Ultimately crypto’s pose no threat to Central Banks anymore than gold does. What Central Banks will not do is give it legal tender status except for a few that see it as an easy way out of their terrible currency situation when they find themselves in crisis. You won’t be able to pay your taxes with it and you will pay taxes on your gains but given enough time there will likely be sensible regulation that treats it with taxation similar to other FOREX trading. It isn’t like the US government makes it illegal for me to own Yuan or Yen or Pounds Sterling.

    Now they certainly could shut it all down but it won’t go away. The technology is out and it has utility. Current pricing doesn’t assume mass adoption. Mass adoption pricing ranges from 300k to several million.

    At the dawn of the internet all the Media experts said it would never be useful for anything. There was not possible way anyone would want to access their content that way. TV, Radio and Brick and Mortar forever. Well the world moves.

  4. Yes crypto is a bubble … like I first postulated in here when BTC reached $3000.
    I hope I’ll be smart enough to buy BTC back again later when it’s much cheaper. Why?

    IMHO you guys have it backwards. As 6000 years of history teaches us, it’s government debt and institutions like the central bank that will go to zero like they have periodically before. Bitcoin (and gold) will survive that upheaval and won’t go to zero. So later I’ll take the other side of that trade, and thank you for providing me with liquidity in shitty government paper to sell into.

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