You’ve got to choose one.
And here’s the question: a year and a half into the mania, which bubble was/is the most “bubbly”?
And here are the choices:
- Nasdaq Dot-Com (’98-’00)
- Inverse Vol. (’16-current)
- Bitcoin (’15-current)
- Topix (’82-’89)
- Dow Real Estate (’03-’07)
- Biotech (’11-’15)
- Chinese stocks (’14-’15)
You can probably guess where this is going.
See, the thing is, when it comes to bubbles, nothing initially grew faster than the short vol. trade:
(BofAML)
That is remarkable considering this is a list that includes the margin-fueled, Chinese equity “miracle” of 2015, which was famous for turning bored housewives into leveraged day traders.
And so, having already grown faster in its initial stages than every other notable bubble on the list (and they probably should have included housing in Canada and Sweden), the only question now is whether it will continue to rise and ultimately surpass the 2+ year, exponential rally in BitCoin.
If it does, Seth Golden will be one of the richest people on the planet:
Is that the Capital Ladders Seth Golden, the guy who had multiple Yahoo IDs and posted about himself on the SodaStream message board? Read his comments after any of his Seeking Alpha articles…he’s a liar and a child.
Interesting comparisons. How would the gold price 1971-1980 plot on this chart? I guess (back of the envelope) 10x in nine yrs would work out to about the slope of the “biotech” bubble. It could be argued that gold does not represent exactly a “bubble”, but for certain time intervals it does quack.
Go seth go! Question. Why does one need 2 laptops to trade ETP’s? No analysis needed. Just buy it.