“I’ve gone to great lengths to try and disabuse retail of that notion, and not because I want to make people feel stupid. But rather because I want investors to understand that if central banks pull back and markets are allowed to trade in a two-way manner again, suddenly everyone is going to realize they weren’t the gurus they thought they were.”
“While I am a big fan of ETFâ€™s, I worry when I see enormous growth in a security or theme and always think about unintended consequences of that growth. I hope I am wrong on my hypothesis, but Iâ€™ve experienced many crashes and the underlying mechanics of investor panic generally do not change.”
The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.
“Despite a Fed rate hike, a confluence of geopolitical risks, a correction in commodity prices, high profile policy setbacks in the U.S., the failure of most 2017 consensus trades and disappointing hard economic data, U.S. equities are not finding the path lower an easy one.”