Chart Check: “Le Pen Risk” Falls To Lowest In 5 Weeks

There’s been no shortage of warnings from analysts, economists, and political scientists (you know, Taleb’s “pseudo-experts” who know nothing) regarding just how traumatic it would be both for financial markets and for the EU in general were Marine Le Pen to pull a (populist) rabbit of her hat and win the French presidency.

But is that “tail risk” becoming more tail risk-ish (i.e. less probable)?

According to credit markets, the answer would appear to be “yes”, as French CDS is now trading below 50bps for the first time since mid-February:

And it’s the same story with OATs:

Meanwhile, in the latest rolling daily poll from Ifop:

• Macron Would Beat Le Pen 60%-40% in 2nd Round: Daily Ifop Poll

First Round:

• Emmanuel Macron 25.5%
• Marine Le Pen 25%
• Francois Fillon 17.5%
• Benoit Hamon 10.5%
• Jean-Luc Melenchon 14%