China trade Trump

Why The US May Lose A Trade War With China

On Wednesday in "A Trade War With China Will Plunge The World Into Recession – But This Idiot Doesn’t Care," I talked a bit about Peter Navarro, the Harvard-educated economist/professor who, thanks in no small part to his documentary "Death By China" and book of the same name, has become Donald Trump's muse on trade. Navarro will head Trump's National Trade Council and is widely expected to imbue the new President with a profound sense of urgency when it comes to making good on campaign promises regarding America's relationship with China. Not surprisingly, Trump seems blissfully unaware that Navarro is viewed by his peers as something of a hack. If the goal was to legitimize Trump's crusade against Beijing, the new administration has failed miserably - at least in the eyes of the academic community. Of course we shouldn't expect Navarro's reputation to matter. After all, we're talking about a President-elect who appointed Steve Bannon chief strategist. But the stakes here are high. Despite the black and white, zero sum world that Trump and Navarro imagine they live in, there will likely be no winners in a US/China trade war. But there will be losers, most notably th
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3 comments on “Why The US May Lose A Trade War With China

  1. d. dugger. says:

    I think lynching parties might form in the US to find and string up Trump and his cronies if Chinese low cost products disappeared from US markets to any serious degree. Minor duties probably aren’t a concern. Companies like Amazon that are greatly dependent on Chinese manufactured goods would have an extremely one sided risk/reward ratio analysis – favoring their support of the expedient replacement of Trump with more informed and cognizant leadership. Personally, I still have some bets that Trump will not take office and if he does – he won’t complete his first year – much less his first term. Not all business leaders see his presence as favorable. Thinking Amazon – drones can deliver a lot of things beside pizzas.

  2. Larry sites says:

    Thank you so much for your previous posting of Navarro’s audiobook link. Last night my Chinese significant other and I watched the whole thing as according to her the Chinese basically hate Navarro and I had been thinking about reading the book to get an understanding why. I seriously hope that’s not president-elect Trump only source of information on China. It’s filled with alarmist and outdated information about product quality problems, Enviromental disregard and human rights abuses such as organ harvesting for profit. I could not recommend viewing it by anyone without Chinese acquaintances or some way to offset all the negativity with the truth of the current situation in China

  3. Anonymous says:

    China will not enter into a full scale trade war with the US for one reason. Internal stability. If hundreds of thousands of Chinese had to lose their jobs , the authorities will have to control the unrest. The people have moved on from the days of obedience under Mao. Stability is the Chinese gov’s number one priority.

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