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Daily Kickstart (Is It Friday Yet Edition)

Well it looks like mostly red screens this morning and you have to suspect that after coming within 15 or so points of the Jeremy Siegel promised land last week, the Dow may end the year short of 20K.

The first thing I saw when I rolled over and checked markets on my phone at 4:45 Thursday morning was the USDJPY lower by around 0.8%. I didn’t even have to look to know what that meant for Japanese equities. Sure enough the Nikkei is off more than 1%. Toshiba’s epic plunge didn’t help matters. The Topix looks set for its first yearly loss in half a decade. Where’s the Kuroda plunge protection team when you need them, right?

Speaking of Kuroda, here’s what the BoJ governor told Nikkei on Thursday: “We’re still not in a place where we can say we have escaped deflation, or that we can achieve the 2% price stability target.” So basically all that easing has amounted to nothing – or next to nothing.

Oil could be under a bit of pressure after Wednesday’s API report which showed US stockpiles rising 4.2 million bbls last week.

European shares are mixed with an apparent bias to the downside on around half their average volume.

The reality is, no one knows what comes next. We’re sailing into uncharted territory. “You’re in the holidays, volume is low, and we’ve had a good run here,” Ernie Cecilia, chief investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust told WSJ, “But our view would be that stocks still look like the place to be, at least in 2017.” Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Investment Management doesn’t agree. “A market riding on expectations toward a Trump presidency is coming to a close, and we’re starting to focus on reality,” he told Bloomberg this morning. “I expect investors to take a more nervous stance toward U.S. economic indicators from here on.”

Speaking of economic indicators, here’s the calendar today for the US:


  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, Nov., est. -$61.6b (prior – $62.0b)
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, Nov. P, est. 0.2% (prior -0.4%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 24, est. 265k (prior 275k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 25 (prior 46.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: DOE Energy Inventories


And here’s a market wrap:

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2245
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 361
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 135
  • US 10-yr yield down 4bps to 2.47%
  • Dollar Index down 0.56% to 102.72
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.2% to $53.95
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $56.41
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,148
  • Silver spot up 0.9% to $16.18
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 361
  • FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 7101
  • DAX down 0.3% to 11438
  • German 10Yr yield down 2bps to 0.18%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.81%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.33%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.1% to 399.7
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 135
  • Nikkei 225 down 1.3% to 19145
  • Hang Seng up 0.2% to 21791
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3096
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5699

Try to stay awake.


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