Have you ever wondered what the path to the White House looks like when represented with spaghetti noodles?
Me neither, but the NY Times has an interesting flow chart that begins with the premise that a candidate wins Florida and proceeds to map the subsequent path to the Oval Office. Have a look:
And here’s the bottom line:
But don’t count your chickens, folks.
Remember no one thought it was possible for Trump to make it this far. Who says he can’t pull off a stunner? Position defensively ahead of Tuesday.
For a detailed analysis, see here.
Finally, here’s some color from SocGen CEO Frederic Oudea:
“We try to limit our market risks, it’s the best way to show resilient performance ahead of elections in the US, France and Germany.”
“If there is a surprise, the market can react negatively at least in the short term but the Brexit vote showed that markets ‘stabilize’ over the longer term.”
“A Donald Trump victory would be a surprise compared with the central scenario, and it’s very difficult to predict if a Trump victory would be bigger market shock than Brexit vote.”
“We need to have clarity as quickly as possible about Brexit process.”