Get Ready For “More Black Swan Events,” One Bank Warns

About a week ago, President Obama showed up on Jimmy Kimmel Live and delivered the second installment of presidential mean tweets.

The last tweet Obama read was from Donald Trump. Here’s the visual:

obama

Obama’s response: “Well @realDonaldTrump, at least I will go down as a president.”

Hilarious no doubt and in a way, it felt like Obama had put the nail in the proverbial coffin for the Trump campaign which was still reeling from the release of a rather unfortunate audio clip wherein the billionaire explains how he goes about picking up women.

Oh what a difference a week makes.

It’s now the Clinton campaign that’s on the defensive after FBI director James Comey decided to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s emails after new evidence came to light in the course of the Bureau’s Weiner probe (and yes, that’s supposed to be funny).

I never thought I’d say this, but it appears as though Trump may have a legitimate shot. Pretty scary, right? You can bet long vol will be a winner next Wednesday if the bellicose, bronzed billionaire wins the oval office. Here’s an interesting bit of color from Citi on the potential for more uncertainty and more black swans:

Black Swan Bombshell, or Just More Noise?

Friday’s surprise announcement by FBI Chief Comey that additional emails would be reviewed as part of the agency’s ongoing investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server was sufficiently vague and unusual to rattle markets and see prediction market odds drop from 81% to 75%. We have warned throughout the campaign that Black Swan risks including scandals and information warfare, are extraordinarily high, and hence have been less bullish for a Clinton victory than consensus. In our view, these developments do constitute an “October Surprise” that could have a meaningful impact on the race. We continue to emphasize the potential for more Black Swan events emerging making things more complicated for forecasters and pollsters.

High Anxiety to Continue to November 8th

The extent to which the 11th Hour development will influence voter behavior is likely to remain uncertain right up until Election Day; typically it takes at least a week before new developments filter through to polls. With just over a week to go, the impact of the FBI’s announcement may be just beginning to register, exacerbating uncertainty. ‎Even before Friday, Clinton’s lead had tightened, from 6.4pp on 20 October in the RCP average to 5.6pp by last Thursday (27 October), in polling conducted between 14 and 27 October, prior to the news breaking. In addition to a lag before polls reflect developments, it is highly unlikely that the FBI will come to a conclusion about the nature of the emails, whether classified, confidential or otherwise, before elections. ‎

 

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2 thoughts on “Get Ready For “More Black Swan Events,” One Bank Warns

  1. Four years of Trump and forty years of Clinton corruption? Pardon me while I rinse the taste of vomit from my mouth!

    Yesterday I was grocery shopping and just happened to glance at the latest cover of the National Enquirer. In summary: HRC is hooked on narcotics, she blackmailed the FBI to close the email probe (it was never closed), and see Part 2 of Hillary’s hit man tell-all expose. This is a mag that at 13-14 I would buy for a good laugh. I know the great orange one has quoted the NE for factual arguments but it’s not news. Same goes for many (all?) internet news sites. My point? Just because someone says something, even repeating it for 30-40 years, doesn’t make it true.

    As far as character is concerned, Grandma Hillary is a saint compared to Trump. Gotta run, have to feed the monkey-boy from outer space that I have caged in my basement.

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