Full OPEC “Deal Or No Deal” Guide

Full OPEC “Deal Or No Deal” Guide

Having a difficult time keeping up with the OPEC “to freeze or not to freeze” headline hockey? I am too, which is why I typically try to cut through the bullshit by framing the entire thing as a manifestation of the region’s never ending sectarian hostilities.

For those interested, here’s the latest on where each country stands on the freeze/cut issue (via Bloomberg):

    • OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo says Monday in Bloomberg TV interview that producers “on course” to deliver deal next month; Iraq firmly committed to Algiers accord, confident non-OPECwill contribute
    • Barkindo: freeze or cut is “mere semantics”
    • OPEC secretariat said Saturday that Vienna talks were constructive, need more frequent consultations in November toward implementation of Sept. 28 Algiers deal that aims to limit OPEC supply to 32.5m-33m b/d
    • NOTE: OPEC officials met Friday in Vienna, then held talks Saturday with non-OPEC nations Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia
    • READ: OPEC splits prevent deal with other producers
  • IRAQ:
    • Consistent with its view that secondary-source production est. are inaccurate, Iraq’s state marketing agency on Sunday released detailed production data on 26 fields, plus a single output figure for semi-autonomous Kurdish region
    • The country’s minister has previously stated that Iraq should be exempted from cutting production because it’s fighting Islamic State
  • BRAZIL (non-OPEC):
    • Saturday’s talks were “just conversations” with no output commitment reached between OPEC and non-OPEC, Brazil’s Oil Secretary Marcio Felix said after those talks ended
    • Outcome of talks depends heavily on Iran and Iraq, which are “more interested in increasing their oil production,” Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev said Saturday morning. After talks ended, he said he was satisfied with progress
  • IRAN:
    • Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia on Oct. 24 said Iran will “go along with” OPEC goal of balancing market, IRNA reported. Didn’t specify what actions Iran might take
    • Iranian officials previously said the nation is pumping more than secondary source estimates show, and have argued it should be allowed to produce 4m b/d or more
  • RUSSIA (non-OPEC):
    • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Oct. 26 that Russia’s prefered position is an output freeze rather than a reduction; still considering all options
    • Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Oct. 23 that Gulf nations were working with Russia and others to stabilize market; he mentioned possibility of either a freeze or a cut in an Oct. 19 speech in London
    • Nigeria, Libya already have exemptions from cutting production as part of Algiers deal
    • Monday (Oct. 31): OPEC governors meet to discuss long- term strategy in Vienna
    • Tuesday, Wednesday: OPEC governors meet in Vienna
    • Early November: OPEC’s Barkindo to visit Kuwait, U.A.E. for further consultations; may coincide with Nov. 7-10 Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi
    • Nov. 10: IEA’s monthly report with demand, supply est.
    • Nov. 11: OPEC releases monthly report with secondary- source production ests. for October that might be used as baseline for reductions
    • Nov. 17: Chance for ministers from some OPEC, non-OPEC nations to meet during Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Doha, says Russia’s Novak
    • Nov. 25-26: OPEC and non-OPEC officials hold more consultations in Vienna
    • Nov. 30: Policy-setting OPEC ministerial conference in Vienna
      • Any decisions adopted by group typically take effect on first day of month after meeting, or the month after that

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